According to the latest report from international shipbroker Banchero Costa, global seaborne coal trade volume (excluding domestic transport) fell by 7.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, dropping to 619.2 million tons. Major exporting countries generally saw declines, while emerging demand in Southeast Asia became a rare bright spot.
**Supply Side: Traditional Exporters Contract**
– Indonesia, the largest exporter (38.8% share in 2024), saw exports plunge 14.1% to 220.1 million tons in the first half.
– Australia (the world’s second-largest exporter, 26.0% share in 2024) recorded a 5.6% decline to 162.7 million tons.
– Russia (-1.0%), the U.S. (-6.9%), and Colombia (-28.2%) all posted negative growth, while only South Africa (+5.5%) and Canada (+1.2%) saw modest increases.
Notably, Australia’s coal exports were severely impacted by China’s trade ban in 2021–2022 (exports to China plummeted to just 300,000 tons in 2022). Although they rebounded strongly after the ban was lifted in 2023 (exports to China surged 51.4% to 84.8 million tons in 2024), shipments to China fell again by 7.1% to 35.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, accounting for 21.8% of its total exports.
**Demand Side: Weakness in East Asia vs. Expansion in Southeast Asia**
1. **Australia’s Trade Structure Undergoes Major Adjustments**
– **Export Market Reshuffle:**
– Japan remained the top buyer (26.8% share in H1 2025), but imports fell 10.5% to 43.7 million tons.
– India overtook China as the second-largest market (12.8% share), importing 20.8 million tons (-4.8%).
– Exports to Vietnam plunged 36.5% to 11.9 million tons.
– **Port Capacity Distribution:**
– Newcastle Port (66 million tons loaded in H1) dominated, followed by Gladstone (30.1 million tons) and Dalrymple Bay (26.6 million tons).
– In terms of vessel types, Panamax and Post-Panamax ships carried 64.7% of the cargo, while Capesize vessels accounted for 32.5%.
**Deep Impact of a Historic Shift**
Analysts note that geopolitical factors in recent years have reshaped the global coal trade landscape. Australia mitigated the sharp decline in exports to China in 2022 (total exports shrank 7.8% to 329.1 million tons) by expanding into alternative markets like India and Vietnam. Despite the recovery in 2023–2024 (exports reached 356.1 million tons in 2024), the industry-wide downturn in the first half of 2025, coupled with weakening demand from key partners Japan and India, signals new challenges for Australia’s coal exports.
