Russian wheat export prices were flat last week as exporters lowered their bids while domestic wheat prices fell, and farmers limited their sales in anticipation of higher prices, analysts said on Monday.
The Sovecon consultancy reported that prices for the nearest delivery dates for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content were flat at $217-220 per metric ton, while domestic prices fell to 14,550 roubles per ton from 14,775 a week earlier.
“As predicted, the wheat market reversed. We anticipate some short-term weakness,” Sovecon said in its weekly research note.
The IKAR consultancy put the price of free-on-board (FOB) 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat for delivery in late September at $216 per metric ton at the end of last week, the same as the week before.
Sovecon estimated Russia’s August wheat exports at 5.2 million tons, near the record-high 5.3 million tons a year ago, but said that demand in Russia’s ports was gradually declining as traders accumulated sufficient stocks.
“Russian FOB prices are expected to remain mostly flat,” Sovecon said.
Crop setbacks in the European Union, including the worst French wheat harvest since the 1980s, supported wheat prices, but ample global supply and stiff competition from the Black Sea area have kept a lid on the market.
Sovecon estimated Russia’s weekly grain exports at 1.13 million tons, down from 1.27 million a week ago, including 1.09 million tons of wheat.
As of Aug. 27, Russian farmers had harvested 81.5 million metric tons of grain compared with 96.5 million tons in 2023.
Russia has been hit by weather extremes ranging from early spring frosts to droughts to floods, with some grain-producing regions suffering significant crop losses. Sovecon said drier weather in the Siberia and Urals areas will help the harvesting campaign.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gleb Bryanski; editing by David Evans)
