The International Maritime Organization (IMO) recently hosted the 83rd meeting with the Marine Environmental Protection Committee (MEPC 83), resulting in a new fuel intensity target, which is set to come into force no later than March 2027.
This new regulation is similar to the Fuel EU regulation enforced this year, but with global fleet coverage. The major effect of this new IMO GHG regulation will be to enforce a financial penalty for using cheaper, carbon intensive fuels like Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO), with the money collected from the scheme being fed back into the “IMO Net-Zero Fund” which will used to develop and support green shipping initiatives.
The regulation should level the playing field for alternative fuels such as ammonia and methanol. Due to the significantly higher costs of building and operating alternative-fueled vessels, these vessels are at a significant economic disadvantage compared to those that are conventionally fueled, unless use of conventional fuel oils are financially penalized.
While it is difficult to provide precise predictions on future value movements, Veson Nautical reports three general predictions that can be made in terms of the S&P market:
As mentioned above, decreasing economic viability of older generation vessels will also likely spur on newbuild demand and S&P demand for young vessels.
As the IMO’s new fuel intensity target approaches implementation, its effects are already beginning to shape decision-making across the maritime sector. From accelerating the shift toward dual-fuel and high-efficiency vessels to prompting early scrapping of older tonnage, the regulation stands to influence both operational and investment strategies.
While uncertainties remain around pricing and compliance mechanisms, one thing is clear: aligning fleet composition with future emissions targets will be critical to staying competitive in a decarbonizing market.
