According to analysts, from the surge in demand for Aframax after the Russia-Ukraine war and the strengthening of the “dark fleet,” to the imposition of tariffs by the U.S. on India and the lifting of OPEC+ production cuts, the factors determining freight rates and oil flows are more numerous and complex than ever.
If OPEC quotas increase, the VLCC market could strengthen, given that fleet expansion is very limited.
For there to also be demand for VLCCs, OPEC+ quotas must be maintained.
It is also noted that the future prospects for Aframax will depend heavily on the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and OPEC+ decisions, while the gradual production decline in traditional markets poses new challenges for the industry.
Within this fluid environment, the moves of major players and shifts in exports may determine the direction and profitability of the entire industry in the coming period.
According to Gibson’s analysis, after the Russia-Ukraine war, demand for Aframax strengthened significantly, primarily through the “dark fleet” serving Russian trade, while the tightening of Western sanctions adds uncertainty.
25% of the global LR2 fleet has already been placed under sanctions, with an additional 7% at risk.
At the same time, new fronts are opening in maritime oil transport following the U.S. imposition of tariffs on India.
Washington’s decision to impose additional tariffs on India for imports of Russian crude oil opens a new chapter in global maritime transport and directly affects the tanker freight market.
India, which this year imports approximately 1.6 mil…
barrels of Russian oil daily, constitutes a critical destination for Russian exports.
If it decides to align with the U.S. stance, Moscow will face the challenge of finding alternative markets for massive volumes of crude.
Already, Indian refining companies are increasing their purchases from the Middle East and the Atlantic Basin, while secondary U.S. sanctions on third countries intensify pressure on flows.
This development threatens demand for Aframax and LR2 tankers, shifting maritime activity toward larger VLCCs and Suezmax vessels.
Meanwhile, analysts do not rule out a shift in Washington’s stance if major buyers of Russian oil modify their trade practices or—primarily—if progress is made toward a potential Russia-Ukraine peace agreement.
In the main market, the demand outlook for Aframax is mixed but clearer.
Crude oil exports by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), a joint venture managing the pipeline that transports crude from the Caspian Sea fields (primarily from Kazakhstan and partly from Russia) to the Novorossiysk terminal on the Black Sea, surged sharply in early 2025, though the gains primarily benefited Suezmax tankers.
Caspian production is expected to stabilize in the near term and decline thereafter.
Conversely, Aframax trade from Libya continues to strengthen, recently reaching its highest level in 12 years, amid the return of international companies and the restart of oil fields.
Export levels may remain high, but this depends on political stability.
The greatest uncertainty remains the resumption of Kurdish crude flows via Ceyhan, which has been announced multiple times since 2023 but has yet to materialize.
In the Pacific, the expansion of Canada’s TMX pipeline is boosting shipments to China, reinforcing its importance on the global energy map.
Future prospects for Aframax will largely depend on the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and OPEC+ decisions, while the gradual production decline in traditional markets poses new challenges for the sector.
The oil production and exports of OPEC and OPEC+ countries remain one of the most significant factors influencing the global tanker shipping market.
According to Poten & Partners analysts, recent developments with the lifting of voluntary production cuts raise questions about whether this will translate into increased seaborne shipments.
In /2023, eight major producers, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, had agreed to cuts of 2.2 million
barrels/day.
The cuts were extended several times, but this year it was decided to gradually lift them, with quota increases from April to August 2025.
However, in practice, production did not strictly follow the schedule, with monthly fluctuations that are not always linked to quotas.
The data show that exports from the eight countries decreased in two of the four months of the lifting, which explains why the shipping market did not show significant changes.
Although Q4 traditionally brings an increase in exports, the actual impact will depend on whether quotas translate into higher production—and, consequently, more cargo for VLCCs.
OPEC quotas will increase, but this does not automatically mean higher production and exports.
If it does happen, the VLCC market could strengthen, given that fleet growth is very limited.
Significant fluctuations were recorded on August 7 in freight rates on major shipping routes, according to Gibson data.
For VLCCs carrying crude oil from the Arabian Gulf and the Persian Gulf to China, daily earnings were set at $38,750.
Suezmax vessels on the West Africa–UK route recorded higher levels at $54,000, while on the Gulf of Mexico–UK/Continental Europe route, rates were lower at $36,000.
For product tankers, LR2 (Long Range 2) vessels on the Arabian Gulf–Japan route closed at $37,500.
Finally, for MR tankers from the US Gulf to Brazil, rates were set at $33,500, confirming steady demand in the clean products market.
