Container shipping stakeholders have been given a measure of ’short-term’ clarity following the renewed suspension of tariffs between the US and China, though analysts are split on whether demand will rise during the 90-day reprieve
The White House announced on 11 August that it is “necessary and appropriate” to continue suspending tariffs until 10 November.
“The United States continues to have discussions with the PRC to address the lack of trade reciprocity in our economic relationship and our resulting national and economic security concerns,” the statement said.
“Through these discussions, the PRC continues to take significant steps toward remedying non-reciprocal trade arrangements and addressing the concerns of the United States relating to economic and national security matters,” it added.
The current truce began on 14 May, when both sides agreed to a three-month pause in their ongoing trade dispute. Reciprocal tariffs were reduced by 115%, bringing US duties on Chinese goods down to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods to 10%.
As the original 90-day period neared its end, the US announced its decision to extend the suspension.
Mixed market outlook
Vespucci Maritime chief executive Lars Jensen noted in a social media post that for US importers, the extension offers some near-term clarity, particularly ahead of the holiday season.
“The choice is therefore whether or not to import goods from China with these tariff conditions,” Mr Jensen said, adding the “wait-and-see” strategy is no longer appropriate. He suggested the market may see increased demand in the coming weeks, which could temporarily push up Pacific spot rates.
However, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said the 90-day extension is unlikely to significantly affect shippers. “We should not expect another cargo rush, as we saw immediately following the initial lowering of tariffs mid-May,” Mr Sand explained.
According to Mr Sand, most shippers used the first window to frontload goods. With no pent-up demand remaining, he expects spot rates to continue falling in the coming weeks as capacity rises.
Lingering risks
Despite the pause, uncertainty remains. Mr Jensen warned China’s substantial involvement in the Russian crude oil trade heightens the risk of tariffs being reinstated abruptly.
He cited the example of India, which has faced US tariffs over its imports from Moscow.
