BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia said, “Grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine are estimated to have fallen by 49% year-on-year between January and August 2025. Both countries had a smaller export surplus following the weak grain harvest in the second half of 2024. Overall, the total production of both countries remained 10% below pre-war levels.”
According to US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data, grain harvests in Russia and Ukraine fell by 12% and 6% respectively last year due to bad weather conditions. Faced with declining production, Russia reduced its wheat export quota by 63% between February and June 2025.
Ukraine’s shipments by sea continued despite war-related disruptions and Russia’s strike on the Port of Odesa in March 2025. However, in June, the EU’s tariff-free trade deal for Ukraine’s agricultural exports expired, and the revised agreement no longer covers wheat and corn.
In 2024, Russia and Ukraine were the world’s fourth and fifth largest grain exporters. While Russia led in wheat exports, Ukraine was fourth in corn and fifth in wheat. The war in Ukraine led to a decline in Ukraine’s wheat and corn yields, and during the last harvest, the yield hit a new low, falling 33% below pre-war levels. In contrast, Russia managed to increase its wheat yield by 9%.
Gouveia stated, “The weakening of shipments from Russia and Ukraine contributed to an estimated 6% decline in global grain shipments between January and August 2025. Increased shipments from the US, Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Romania were only able to partially compensate for the weak volumes from Russia and Ukraine. Overall, this situation negatively impacted the demand for panamax, supramax, and handysize vessels.”
So far this year, 70% of grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine have been destined for ports in the Mediterranean, Black Sea, and Middle East. Shipments to East Africa and South, Southeast, and East Asia fell by 62% compared to the previous year, while this rate is 13 percentage points higher than the previous year.
Gouveia said, “According to the USDA, over the next twelve months, we expect a partial recovery in grain shipments from Russia and Ukraine, driven by an expected 19% increase in Ukraine’s corn yield. Wheat shipments could remain stable as an expected 2% yield increase in Russia is balanced by an 8% decline in Ukraine. In total, their grain production is estimated to be 6% below pre-war levels and will be the second weakest year since the start of the war.”
