As the surplus in the oil market swells, Goldman Sachs “sees” a vertical drop in crude prices short-term.
Specifically, based on estimates from Goldman Sachs, the surplus in the oil market will widen and reach an average of 1.8 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. Consequently, global crude inventories are expected to increase by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of next year.
Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects a decrease in the prices of Brent futures contracts to $50/barrel by the end of 2026.
In particular, Goldman Sachs expects that Brent prices will remain at levels similar to those of the futures contracts for the remainder of 2025, however they will retreat next year. High oil inventories and reduced demand from OECD countries will be decisive factors in the price drop. Indicatively, OECD country inventories are estimated to represent one third of global inventories in 2026 (270 million barrels).
Despite this, the American investment bank left “the window open” for an increase in the average Brent price by $6/barrel in 2026, compared to its base scenario ($62/barrel). A potential decision by China to accelerate the increase of its oil inventories could confirm this scenario.
