Recently, renowned shipping analyst John McCown released a report stating that although US import container volume in July 2025 recorded a 3.2% year-on-year increase, this is not a sign of a genuine market recovery. It is entirely a short-term illusion caused by the “tariff front-loading” effect. Behind this seemingly modest growth lies the severe challenge that container volumes may face a historic sharp decline for the remainder of 2025.
“This is just a temporary respite,” McCown emphasized in his analysis. “The growth is entirely due to companies rushing shipments to avoid the new tariffs taking effect in early August.” Regarding the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) forecast that US import container volume for the full year 2025 will decrease by 5.6%, McCown believes this estimate is “consistent with realistic logic.” Considering the cumulative 3.6% year-on-year growth in the first seven months of this year, achieving the NRF’s full-year forecast would mean that US import container volume would plummet by 17.5% over the next five months.
McCown further warned that the actual decline could be more severe than this prediction. “I expect import container volumes to continue to decline, with some single-month year-on-year drops potentially even exceeding 17.5%.”
It is noteworthy that this round of volume decline reflects a structural shift occurring in US maritime trade. Unlike the short-term fluctuations seen during the financial crisis and the pandemic, this downturn is actively driven by policy and could have more lasting effects. “The 2025 volume contraction is entirely caused by tariff policies, and so far there is no indication that this trend is short-term,” McCown pointed out. “It is becoming increasingly clear that high tariffs will persist, at least for the duration of the current administration.”
Beyond impacting volume, the US Trade Representative’s (USTR) plan to impose additional fees on vessels built or operated by China starting in October could further drive up shipping costs. McCown stated that this policy “could lead to a significant overall contraction in capacity, thereby putting upward pressure on freight rates for routes to the United States.”
The current performance of the freight market seems to support this judgment: the Drewry World Container Index has fallen for 11 consecutive weeks. Drewry noted that the “early peak season” previously driven by precautionary purchasing has officially ended. As the US economy slows and tariff costs are passed through, retailers are proactively reducing inventory purchases.
“The volatility and timing of changes in freight rates will depend on future Trump tariffs and capacity changes related to US penalty measures against Chinese vessels, all of which are uncertain,” Drewry stated in its report.
Faced with this complex situation, the container shipping market is caught in a dilemma: either endure a significant shrinkage in cargo volume or cope with persistently high inflation. McCown likened it to an economic scale: “The more severe the decline in US import container volume, the greater the blow to commercial activity and economic growth, but the smaller the inflationary pressure; conversely, if the volume decline is slower, then the inflation level will be more troublesome, but the impact on economic activity will be relatively manageable.”
