The Russian government aims to capture between 25% and 30% of the global market
Russia plans to transport 30 million tons of coal per year by 2026 via the Pacific Railway, a new railway infrastructure connecting the Elga deposit in Yakutia to the Sea of Okhotsk. It is a private line over 530 kilometers long, built with an estimated investment of 146 billion rubles (1.8 billion dollars), intended to become a strategic corridor to push exports towards Asian markets. The project, promoted by the Elga group and oligarch Albert Avdolyan, stems from the urgency to find alternative outlets after the collapse of coal sales to Europe following the sanctions.
Moscow currently exports about 200 million tons of coal every year, half of which are already directed to the East. China, India, Japan, and South Korea are the key customers, but the infrastructural limits of the Trans-Siberian and the BAM (Baikal-Amur Mainline) have made the need for a dedicated network evident. The Pacific Railway is presented as the answer to this logistical bottleneck: a line capable, according to its builders, of handling up to 2,000 wagons per day, with full operational capacity expected between 2025 and 2026.
The Russian government has included the project in its energy strategy up to 2050, which foresees an increase in coal exports to 350 million tons per year, with the goal of capturing between 25% and 30% of the global market. A target that appears ambitious, especially in light of international pressure to reduce the use of fossil fuels and the growing competition from Australia and Indonesia.
Domestically, the challenge is twofold. On one hand, the eastern railway network suffers from a chronic lack of capacity: in 2024, transported volumes dropped to multi-year lows due to delays, a shortage of trains, and rising costs. On the other hand, Pacific ports like Vanino and Vostochny are struggling to handle the increasing loads, while the new Elga terminal will only become operational in the coming years. It is a fragile system that must support an expansion designed to compensate for the void left by Europe.
The international market adds further uncertainties. After the peak in coal prices in 2022, linked to the global energy crisis, prices have collapsed and Asian demand shows signs of slowing. India continues to increase its purchases, but China aims to progressively reduce imports through a mix of domestic production and an acceleration in renewables. Even Japan and South Korea, while remaining important customers, are recalibrating their energy strategies towards decarbonization.
In this context, the Pacific Railway appears as a gamble: necessary for Russia, which cannot afford to give up one of the few remaining large-scale exportable resources, but exposed to the risk of becoming an oversized infrastructure relative to real demand. It is the paradox of a country investing billions to open itself to Asia just as Asia begins to move, albeit slowly, in the opposite direction.
The operation remains a political signal as well as an economic one. Moscow intends to show its Asian partners that it has the logistical capacity to guarantee stable supplies, bypassing the constraints imposed by Western sanctions. If the target of 30 million tons is reached, Russia will have consolidated a piece of its strategy to shift its energy center of gravity. If, however, markets slow down and transport costs continue to rise, the Pacific Railway risks turning into a monument to the frustrated ambitions of an economy that cannot emancipate itself from coal.
