The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) declined last week (18 September) by 6%, reaching $1,913 per 40-foot container.
This is the 14th consecutive week of decline, reflecting the ongoing pressure on the freight market.
The major trade routes are now showing a downward trend: both the Atlantic and the Asia-Europe line are recording decreases, albeit with different intensity.
On the Transpacific routes connecting Asia (mainly China, Japan, Korea, Vietnam) with North America (USA and Canada) across the Pacific Ocean, spot prices returned to the levels seen in early September.
From Shanghai to Los Angeles freight rates decreased by 4%, to $2,561, while on the Shanghai – New York line the drop reached 5%, to $3,571.
The temporary price increases that had occurred in the previous period, due to the general CRI -Cost Recovery Initiative increases, cost recovery due to burdens on fuel, insurance and regulatory burdens such as the EU ETS (European Union Emissions Trading System) and cancellations of sailings (blank sailings)-, were not able to be sustained, as demand remains weak.
Thus, a similar picture is shown by the Asia-Europe trade. Freight rates on the Shanghai – Rotterdam line decreased by 11%, to $1,/FEU, while on the Shanghai – Genoa line the drop was 9%, to $2,/FEU.
This downturn is mainly due to the massive entry of new ships into the market, which increases the available capacity, at a time when global demand for transport remains subdued.
The situation is worsening as China’s Golden Week (1-7 October) approaches, a period when export activities freeze due to holidays.
Already, shipping companies are proceeding with more cancellations of sailings, in an effort to limit losses.
“Carriers continue to cancel sailings,” said Vespucci Maritime analyst Lars Jensen on a podcast released on Monday, pointing out that we are now “at a point where about 14% has been withdrawn from the Pacific, 17% from Asia and Europe.”
He mentioned that Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), one of the largest shipping companies in the world, announced another five cancellations of sailings during the low demand period of Golden Week.
According to Sea-Intelligence data, we are now approaching a capacity reduction of about 14% in the Pacific and 17% in Asia-Europe on a weekly basis.
This is
largely consistent with the historical reduction.
However, there appears to be a sharp drop in demand, especially from China to the US, which likely means that the current capacity reductions are not enough to halt the fall in prices and that we should expect more.
The weekly review by Hyundai Merchant Marine, South Korea’s largest shipping company and one of the world’s leading container carriers, states that regarding port congestion the picture is quite positive and shows that most European locations are no longer burdened with cargo or are minimally so.
The only exceptions are the terminal stations in Mersin, Turkey and at CTB in
Hamburg.
According to Drewry’s Container Forecaster, the supply-demand balance is expected to weaken further in the second half of 2025, leading to a new drop in spot prices.
The future course of freight rates will also depend both on the trade policy of
US President Donald Trump, who is planning new tariffs on Chinese imports, and on potential US sanctions on Chinese ships, factors that remain uncertain and add volatility to the market.
