Calgary, 25 September (Argus) — The Canadian oil and gas industry is anticipating modest production growth in 2026 with just over half of respondents optimistic that a new major pipeline project could be fast-tracked, ATB Capital Markets said in its Fall 2025 Energy Sector Survey.
The semi-annual survey released on 24 September garnered feedback from executives at 91 companies including exploration and production, energy services and institutional investors. Calgary-based ATB’s survey ran from 28 August to 11 September and emulates the Dallas Fed Survey in the US.
About 88pc of oil and gas producers expect to grow production in the next 12 months, up from 79pc saying so in the bank’s previous survey released in April. Gas producers are expecting growth of about 6.3pc while oil producers see about 4.6pc growth, with that divergence between commodities further amplified in company’s capital spending plans. Gas weighted producers plan to increase capital expenditures by 5.2pc in 2026, compared with a 0.4pc decline seen among oil weighted producers.
Companies are unlikely to unveil their 2026 plans until the end of this year, but much of this gas-related optimism relates to the prospect of greater LNG exports on Canada’s west coast. About 83pc of survey participants said LNG Canada’s proposed 14mn t/yr Phase 2 project will see a positive final investment decision before the end of 2026 while 58pc expect the same for the 12mn t/yr Ksi Lisims project.
However, the sentiment that LNG will drive activity for energy services companies has waned in the most recent survey. About 23pc of respondents said LNG exports will be a “significant” driver in 2026, compared to 50pc six months earlier.
Even with Canadian prime minister Mark Carney wanting to fast-track major projects, including LNG Canada, the oil and gas sector is generally “skeptical” that the new federal government actively would work to improve business conditions for them.
“US buyers should be flooding to Canada,” said a survey respondent. “Without long term egress that matches domestic supply surplus and a federal attitude towards supporting a major industry, Canada will continue to languish from lack of foreign capital into the energy sector.”
About 52pc of survey takers were confident a new major oil pipeline project is either probable or highly probable to be fast-tracked by Carney and included on the Projects of National Interest list within the next 12 months. Industry has called for more egress and 10pc of those surveyed say pipelines will be full before 2027, jumping to 51pc before 2029.
But pipeline space still ranks behind federal policies which executives say is the largest risk to the sector.
The government’s Bill C-5, which includes the circumventing of existing regulations but only for projects on Carney’s short-list, is considered a positive step by industry but not the preferred strategy for attracting capital.
“Government must not be picking projects. It’s best to make the climate for the private sector to do this. Change regulations instead of carve outs,” said one respondent.
Executives again called for the government to abolish Bill C-69, the Impact Assessment Act, and Bill C-48, the oil tanker ban on northwest British Columbia, to motivate investors to look at Canada.
By Brett Holmes
