Sea-Intelligence has projected that the global container shipping market is structurally moving towards cyclical overcapacity, with the peak expected in 2027 at a level comparable to the 2016 price wars.
The forecast was published on 2 October 2025 in issue 734 of the Sea-Intelligence Sunday Spotlight.
According to the report, the projection was developed from a baseline of nominal vessel supply and container demand growth, adjusted for four operational factors: the long-term structural slowdown of vessels, port congestion, capacity absorption from the Red Sea crisis, and expected vessel scrapping.
The demand side of the model is based on global GDP growth. The analysis shows a shift from recent capacity deficits back into significant overcapacity, with 2027 set to reach levels similar to 2016, though not as severe as during the 2009 financial crisis.
The forecast assumes that the Red Sea crisis will be resolved by mid-2026, releasing substantial capacity back into the market.
The projection is subject to uncertainties. It relies on a significant increase in vessel scrapping from 2026, removing 13% of the global fleet currently aged 20 years or more.
A prolonged Red Sea crisis would continue to absorb capacity, while the ongoing US trade war is identified as a downside risk to demand. Additional new vessel orders could further increase overcapacity.
Sea-Intelligence is a Denmark-based maritime data and consulting firm specializing in supply chain and container shipping market analysis.
