project44 has released its October Tariff Report, providing updated data on the effects of tariffs on global trade flows.
The report highlights a sharp increase in blank sailings between the United States and China, signaling weakened demand for ocean freight capacity.
According to the report, 67 blank sailings are planned for vessels traveling from China to the U.S. and 71 in the opposite direction this month, exceeding levels recorded during the Covid-19 period.
Blank sailings, when carriers cancel scheduled port calls, are used to manage capacity and rates as import costs rise.
Year-to-date, blank sailings have increased significantly across key trade lanes, including routes from the U.S. West Coast to Southeast Asia (+75%), China to the U.S. West Coast (+46.5%), and Southeast Asia to the U.S. West Coast (+40.7%). Other increases were recorded from the U.S. West Coast to Europe (+31.6%), Southeast Asia to the U.S. East Coast (+28.7%), and the U.S. West Coast to China (+26.5%).
Imports from China have fallen for the fifth consecutive month, while U.S. exports have declined for the ninth. Early indications suggest some sourcing is shifting to Indonesia and Thailand.
Despite these disruptions, ecommerce on-time delivery performance improved by 1% between August and September, and was not affected by the end of the de-minimis exemption.
“Carriers are cancelling sailings at an intensity we haven’t seen since the early pandemic period,” said Bart De Muynck, Head Thinker at Better Supply Chains. “The strategy is less about crisis response this time and more about maintaining rate stability in a tariff-distorted market.”
project44 is a U.S.-based technology company that operates as a Decision Intelligence Platform for supply chain management. It provides logistics visibility, transportation management, and analytics tools that integrate data from carriers, shippers, and logistics providers. The company serves clients across manufacturing, retail, automotive, and life sciences industries, processing over one billion shipments annually.
