Hamburg, 7 October (Argus) — The discussion draft for adjusting the GHG quota will be discussed later in the federal cabinet than assumed. For traders, this means they must continue to be in the dark when calculating their GHG costs for 2026.
Originally, October 8 was planned for the cabinet discussion of the discussion draft, which will transpose the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) into national law in Germany. A cabinet schedule now reveals that this agenda item is planned for a meeting in October but has not yet been assigned a date. Possible dates are October 15, 22, and 29 — thus, a discussion of the draft on October 8 is ruled out.
Many companies expect clarity after the cabinet consultation, during which the discussion draft for the RED III implementation is to be addressed. Subsequently, a reader’s version of the law is expected, which usually corresponds to the later parliamentary draft. Parliament is expected to decide on the discussion draft in December.
Market participants see uncertainties primarily regarding the double counting of advanced fuels. Until now, fuel suppliers have been able to count advanced biofuels at twice their energy value towards the GHG quota, provided they exceed a certain minimum volume. The discussion draft proposes to end this double counting but to retain the minimum mandate. However, rumors are circulating among market participants that the double counting might not be abolished after all, or if so, then only gradually. Accordingly, the spread between offers and bids for GHG certificates for 2026 is very wide. The reader’s version following the cabinet meeting could answer these open questions and allow traders to plan their GHG costs for the coming year more concretely.
By Max Steinhau
