According to an AFP report on September 24, the United Nations stated that the shipping industry, which handles over 80% of global goods trade, is entering a period characterized by “sluggish growth, rising costs, and increased uncertainty.”
The latest report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) points out that geopolitical tensions, new tariff policies, evolving trade patterns, and the restructuring of shipping routes are reshaping the global maritime trade landscape.
Consequently, after achieving “robust growth” of 2.2% last year, the volume of maritime trade in 2025 will approach stagnation, with only a slight increase of 0.5%. In the medium term (2026-2030), the average annual growth rate of maritime trade volume is expected to rebound to 2%.
UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan noted in the report: “We have not experienced such prolonged disruptions to major global trade routes since the closure of the Suez Canal in 1967.”
She added: “Vessels that once crossed the Red Sea in days now take weeks to navigate around the Cape of Good Hope. Freight rates, which were relatively stable for years, are now fluctuating wildly every month. Supply chains we thought were resilient have shown their fragility.”
UNCTAD indicated that measures taken by the United States and several of its trading partners regarding tariffs, port fees, and targeted port call restrictions have led to longer voyages and increased costs.
The agency warned that persistently high transport costs will have a more severe impact on developing countries, particularly Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries. The report calls on all parties to take targeted measures to curb cost increases, enhance port operational efficiency, promote trade facilitation, and improve policy predictability.
The shipping industry also faces pressures including the green transition of the fleet. UNCTAD data shows that greenhouse gas emissions from the shipping industry grew by 5% in 2024. Only 8% of the tonnage in the global fleet has the capability to use alternative fuels, and the ship recycling rate remains low.
The agency cautioned that decarbonizing the shipping industry will incur massive costs, involving fleet renewal, port upgrades, and the infrastructure construction required for alternative fuels.
Disclaimer: This article is reprinted for the purpose of conveying more information. If there is any source labeling error or infringement of your legitimate rights and interests, please contact us with proof of ownership, and we will correct or delete it promptly. Thank you.
