Milan – The agreement signed at the end of August by the EU with the USA “makes things easier for us compared to others”, but it still marks a major discontinuity with the past, when tariffs averaged around 3-4%. In this context, Italy – which derives a third of its GDP from foreign sales – enjoys a not unfavorable position, considering that the exported products are mostly “neither replaceable, nor too accessible” in terms of prices and that the destination markets are “consolidated.”
This was highlighted by Sara Armella, lawyer and owner of Studio Armella and scientific director of Arcom, at the opening of the third edition of the International Trade Forum taking place today in Milan.
Given these premises, however, the need to diversify the destinations for made in Italy is evident to everyone, starting precisely – Armella highlighted again – from that single market within the EU which, by removing existing barriers, could together with the Mercosur market compensate for the expected loss anticipated from the introduction of the Trump administration’s tariffs.
During the morning, the views of various stakeholders were compared on the topic (how to deal with the impact of tariffs and which different paths to set Italian exports on).
The business perspective was represented first and foremost by Laura Travaglini of Confindustria. “We have two mantras: the first is that the US market is essential, the second is to follow the track of alternative markets regulated by free trade agreements.” In addition to appreciating the upcoming signing by the EU of the agreement with Mercosur and the intensification of negotiations with India, Indonesia, and Thailand, Travaglini emphasized the importance of the agreements already reached. “We are also pushing for the use of existing agreements, such as the one with Canada. Some SMEs were not familiar with these agreements before, now they have understood their importance.” For its part, she added, Confindustria has made a tool called Expand available to companies to help them intercept new potential markets in line with their offerings.
The reaction of companies was also reported by Floriana Benedan, Managing Director of the Customs Directorate of DHL Express Italy (observation point: 77,000 companies served, 79% of which are engaged in international trade). “Some are taking a wait-and-see approach, others have already increased prices, while others have completely stopped exports and are reviewing supplies and distribution.” Here, according to the manager, the added value of a globally widespread logistics operator can come into play: “We are active in 220 markets, we offer customers the opportunity to diversify destinations globally without necessarily having to complete lasting, ‘physical’ investments in the target markets.”
On the other hand, a structured company like Piaggio can claim to have so far felt little impact from the tariffs and the related uncertainty. In this regard, Matteo Colaninno, executive president of the group, highlighted: “We anticipated them with two strategies, the first being to set up plants in international markets: this gives us strength in trade wars.” The second, he remarked, was “investment in technology and brands.”
Feedback on how flows are already partially reconfiguring was then provided by Maurizio Forte, central director for export sectors at Ice.
“We have always diversified: today we are looking at new markets, or we are looking in a new way at old markets”. Concretely, Forte noted how in July sales to the USA were still growing (probably still due to frontloading), as were those to the “traditional markets” of Spain and Switzerland. Furthermore, France and Germany have “returned to positive territory” (after the sharp decline in 2024). Mercosur countries (+4%), ASEAN countries and the Middle East also performed well, while the performance of Turkey (because gold exports have deflated) and China (due to the decline in luxury goods) was negative. Forte also pointed out, as an alarming data point, the increase in Chinese foreign sales of instrumental mechanics, a segment that “represents the backbone” of our exports but which, in contrast, recorded a slight decline in Italy.
Despite the risks and the uncertain framework, what emerged from the two panel discussions that animated the first half-day of the forum was also a certain liveliness in import-export operations, as first highlighted by Maria Preiti, Territorial Director for Lombardy of the Customs and Monopolies Agency.
“In 2024 in Italy, Adm carried out 93 million customs operations, a number pushed up by the growth of e-commerce, which is generating a high degree of fragmentation”. Preiti added that customs are responding to this trend and the growing uncertainty “by strengthening investments in technology and staff training to ensure the fluidity of flows”. Just two days ago, Autentica was presented, an application to certify product origin and combat counterfeiting, developed with Sogei and the scientific contribution of the Politecnico di Milano.
More generally, positive signals – even in the current particular context – were reported by both Benedan and Forte. “We sense a great desire for internationalization, we record many sold-out events,” the latter highlighted, referring in particular to trade fairs and training initiatives. “For companies, the risks come from fragmentation and regulatory uncertainty, amplified by a lack of training and digital tools,” Benedan pointed out, who also noted, however: “We have set up a task force to answer questions, created a hotline: we hear from companies a strong demand for knowledge.”
F.M.
