According to an analysis by Drewry, canceled sailings for the next four weeks will reach 41 blank sailings out of a total of 716 announced departures. On average, 94% of ships are expected to start their voyages as planned.
The consultancy indicated that between week 42 (October 13-19) and week 46 (November 10-16), the main routes; that is, the Transpacific, Transatlantic, and Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean, will accumulate a cancellation of 6% of total departures.
In the next five weeks, it is contemplated that the majority of blank sailings will take place on the East Transpacific route (44%), followed by Asia-Northern Europe and Mediterranean (32%); and West Transpacific (24%).
Drewry projects a drop in blank sailings, from 81 in October to 52 in November, while a 5% monthly increase in capacity is expected along the main East-West routes.
“Overcapacity, blank sailings, and regional congestion continue to affect schedules, while US importers face bottlenecks at ports and staff shortages,” the consultancy pointed out.
Adding more disruptions, the new USTR port fees for Chinese vessels come into effect on October 14, requiring advance payment to avoid being banned from entering US ports. China has announced retaliatory fees for US ships, although the impact is expected to be limited due to the relatively small size of the US fleet operating in Chinese ports,” it added.
“Looking ahead, geopolitical developments, congestion, and structural overcapacity will continue to influence rates. Shippers are advised to book in advance and maintain flexibility in the face of persistent volatility,” concluded Drewry.
