According to the latest report from Clarksons Securities, although tariff policies bring uncertainty, the overall trend of the current shipping market is stronger than it was six months ago.
Clarksons pointed out in its research report that its ClarkSea Index, which covers all major ship types, has risen to $29,/day, a 26% increase from the previous level of $23,/day.
Managing Director Steve Gordon noted that market sentiment has generally improved after the summer, with the tanker sector performing particularly strongly; however, the impact of geopolitics on trade and the uncertainty brought by global decarbonization remain the main challenges for the future market.
He emphasized in the research report released on LinkedIn: “Most shipping sectors are currently maintaining very healthy cash flows, but the complexities facing the future are accumulating.”
Gordon forecasts that the growth rate of global seaborne trade volume will slow to 0.6% in 2025, reaching 12.8 billion tons, a significant narrowing from last year’s 2.5% increase.
He pointed out that although US trade policy has had a substantial impact on market sentiment and investment levels, only 4% of global seaborne trade this year is affected by new tariffs.
On the supply side, the fleet size continues to expand steadily and is expected to maintain a 4% growth rate in 2025 and 2026, but performance varies significantly across sectors:
The LNG carrier fleet leads the growth at 9%, the container ship fleet grows by 6.6%, the bulk carrier fleet grows by 3%, and the tanker fleet grows by 2.4%.
Specifically, the container freight market shows divergent trends: time charter rates are rising steadily due to tight capacity, maintaining at the highest levels outside of the pandemic period; while spot freight rates are fluctuating downwards and are currently below early 2024 levels.
The tanker market sees robustly improving earnings, with VLCC daily earnings reaching about $90,000 as winter fuel demand grows, benefiting from limited fleet growth and continued production increases by major oil producers.
The bulk carrier market overall remains moderate, with annual daily earnings at $13,000, but a surge in Guinea’s bauxite exports has pushed Capesize vessel daily earnings up to $25,000.
LPG carrier earnings remain firm.
Gordon specifically pointed out that LNG carriers face a difficult short-term situation, with a large number of newbuilding deliveries putting pressure on the market before the large-scale commissioning of new export capacity.
Furthermore, the offshore oil and gas market has softened year-on-year but remains within a reasonable range, while the car carrier market, after experiencing a peak in 2022-2024, has entered a downward trend as the fleet expands rapidly.
