Preliminary analysis of “Voyage Details” data from Signal Ocean indicates that U.S. crude oil seaborne volumes reversed in November after a strong performance in October.
In October 2025, U.S. crude oil seaborne volumes climbed to 129.8 million barrels, reaching a new annual high and continuing the growth momentum since August. However, early November “Voyage Details” data show a sharp decline in crude oil transportation volumes, which are projected to fall back to approximately 110 million barrels by the end of the month.
This slowdown coincides with a rapid deterioration in the export environment. Soaring freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have compressed arbitrage opportunities to the Far East market; tight availability of Suezmax vessel capacity has limited transportation opportunities to Europe. Meanwhile, Europe is still digesting the large volumes of WTI Aframax crude that arrived in October, leading to an oversupplied North Sea market and persistently weak refinery demand.
U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to face upward pressure. Against the backdrop of constrained export volumes and insufficient refining capacity due to autumn maintenance, the upcoming U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data will be crucial in confirming whether crude oil inventories have begun to accumulate. The market will also closely monitor whether the export arbitrage window improves and if refinery capacity recovers.
