At the Shipmag Observatory on “Geologistica, new routes for new markets” the weight of ETS and tariffs on the evolution of world trade
Rome – The first data from Italian ports shows resilient traffic. Despite the international situation, wars, tariffs, and ETS, our ports maintain a good pace, indicating the stability of the country’s system. “And we have a very strong port system: 15% of the total traffic of European ports passes through Italian ports and 21% of the ships that must dock in Europe touch at least one Italian port. This means that our port system represents one-fifth of the European Union in terms of ship docking. Furthermore, 24% of European ro-ro traffic passes through Italian ports,” highlights Alessandro Panaro, head of maritime & energy at Srm, the research center linked to the Intesa Sanpaolo group, in his speech at the fifth edition of the Shipmag Observatory on Ports – Analysis and reflections in memory of Francesco Nerli, titled “Geologistica, new routes for new markets” taking place this morning in Rome.
The world economy and maritime transport continue to grow, albeit at a reduced rate, highlights the Srm study, and the development forecasts for global container maritime transport indicate 14% growth in 2029 compared to 2024.
However, the scenario in which traffic moves remains complex and uncertainty persists. The Suez Canal is reopening, after the Houthi rebels announced the suspension of attacks in the Red Sea. “But the data still confirms an ongoing perturbation that continues – says Panaro, illustrating the study on ‘Ports, shipping and the logistical challenges’ -. The companies never abandoned the canal, first of all CMA CGM, but they drastically reduced transits which from the period /September 2025 have been reduced by 50%. There is not yet a stabilization, rather the search for alternative routes is increasingly insistent, such as the Arctic route, for example, which can never replace Suez but in the long run, for some types of goods and for some routes, it could be a valid alternative.”
The “how” ships transit the Suez Canal today is also curious, namely by turning off the identification system (AIS transponder) during the passage and thus becoming “invisible” for six days to avoid being tracked by drones.
But it’s not just a matter of routes; the other element that is reshuffling traffic is that of US tariffs. The impact of tariffs affected 3.6% of world maritime trade in 2025, China reduced exports to the United States and increased traffic to Europe, India, ASEAN countries, and Latin America by 8.2%, 12.9%, 14.7%, and 16.9% respectively. “China is also trying, a bit like all countries that have relations with the United States are doing, to diversify the supply chain, look for new supply chains and not be too dependent on China and the US for imports and exports,” explains Panaro.
And there is another element to pay attention to. Starting next year, the ETS, which for 2025 had stopped at 70%, will cover one hundred percent of emissions. “This means that the cost for every ton of CO2 emitted will be full and therefore the management costs for ships heading to Europe will increase – underlines Panaro –, which has effectively self-penalized, because ships can choose to go elsewhere and not to Europe.
They are not fixed structures, they can change route or port. Therefore, taxes that target ships do nothing but penalize the country that establishes them. This is why, although the ETS is praiseworthy as a concept, since it is based on the principle that the polluter pays, I think that rather than establishing punitive systems, a mechanism for rewarding virtuous players should be experimented with, from tax exemptions to incentives for changing fuel.”
The scenario is competitive and in motion: the maritime axis, according to analysts, will remain on China and the United States in the coming years, which will not give way and disappear, however, new players are emerging. And new opportunities are opening up, the study adds. “The value-added production markets remain China, the US, Japan, and Germany, but looking at manufacturing industrial production, which generates port traffic, there are countries that are exploding in a positive sense, in terms of growth rates: the Philippines, Ireland, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and India. And in our opinion, they will be the ones that, as a trend, will produce more maritime transport,” explains Panaro, showing drawings and graphs from the study.
“There are also China, Russia, Turkey, old clients. But today there is a lot of talk about the Imec corridor (India Middle East Europe), so there is also India, which over the last three years has had industrial production growing on average by 6.7%, and Saudi Arabia is growing by 7%. And to have a complete picture, it is also important to look at the countries that export the most, to be considered more carefully for the future.”
Returning to China, among the opportunities, Panaro also mentions the development of the Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese new Silk Road: “The discussion has been somewhat abandoned, but 2024 was the record year for investments in the Chinese Belt and Road, China invested 51 billion dollars, so it is proceeding quietly.”
