Installed capacity in the UK is set to soar, reaching more than 40 GW by 2030, with further additions possible (source: Ørsted)
Clarksons Research says it expects installed offshore wind capacity in the UK to quadruple to 42.7 GW by 2030, compared with an installed base of 11.4 GW currently
In a briefing on its Renewables Intelligence Network, Clarksons Research – the data and analytics arm of Clarksons – said the number of active turbines would double by 2030, to 4,700, compared to 2,400 in May 2022.
Clarksons Research managing director Steve Gordon said, “Following recent UK government plans to accelerate the permitting process, there is upside to these figures, with the UK government now targeting 50 GW by 2030.
“Our projections suggest the UK will remain Europe’s largest offshore wind market through 2030,” said Mr Gordon. “Capacity expansion in the UK through 2030 will be underpinned by the development of windfarms in the southern North Sea, projected to reach 24.2 GW, up 278% from today’s 6.4 GW, and Scotland, projected to reach 12.8 GW, up almost seven-fold from today’s 1.9 GW.”
Mr Gordon said that together, the southern North Sea and windfarms in Scottish waters would account for 30% of UK capacity, but the Celtic Sea is also set to see a significant build-out of floating offshore wind capacity towards the end of the decade. Clarksons Research estimates that there will be 1.1 GW of floating capacity there by 2030.
According to analysis the company, installed offshore wind capacity in UK waters is set to grow by 30% in 2022, with 3.2 GW of capacity added, including the world’s largest windfarm, Ørsted’s 1.4 GW Hornsea Project Two. These capacity additions will see UK offshore wind capacity reach 13.7 GW by the end of this year.
Apart from higher targets announced by the government in recent weeks, the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme will also support further expansion of offshore wind capacity in the UK, with the fourth CfD allocation round set to see 12 GW of renewables capacity awarded subsidies later this year.
Clarksons Research said 12 turbine installation vessels have been active in UK waters over the past year and demand for installation units looks set to remain strong over the coming years with 2,300 turbines projected to be installed off the UK through 2030.
The UK remains the world’s largest dedicated commissioning service operation vessel (CSOV) market, with 11 units currently operating at windfarms off the UK. “With demand for CSOVs to support the construction and maintenance of windfarms further from shore set to increase, a total of nine CSOVs currently on order – 31% of the global CSOV orderbook – have been chartered to work in the UK once delivered.
Clarksons Research also noted that investment in the UK’s offshore wind supply chain has strengthened recently and looks set to see further growth in the coming years. GE has begun the construction of its new blade factory on Teesside, which will produce the turbine blades for the 3.6 GW Dogger Bank project, and SeAH has signed a binding agreement to build a £260M monopile factory for the production of foundations for Orsted’s Hornsea Project Three.
“The broader offshore wind industry looks set to continue its exciting growth phase. Our long-term scenarios suggest offshore wind will play a vital role in the energy transition,” said Clarksons Research. “Globally our projections suggest there will be 240 GW and 30,000 active turbines by 2030. Today there is 51.7 GW and 11,000 turbines. China has become the largest offshore wind market by installed capacity, overtaking the UK in 2021, and with strong growth expected in the US, Taiwan, South Korea and elsewhere the offshore wind industry is becoming increasingly international.”
