Today, the Strait of Hormuz is a tale of two routes: the Iranian northern transit corridor and the U.S.-backed southern route near Oman. That divide helps explain the differing messages being disseminated by Iran and the United States.
For the first time since the war, Windward reported that 21 AIS-visible transits were recorded through the center corridor on June 23.
Traffic moved in both directions. Windward identified a South Korea-flagged container ship and a Liberia-flagged VLCC among the outbound vessels.
“Windward assesses the Strait as entering early-stage normalization, but not yet fully open,” the report said.
Vortexa data also confirmed that the week ending June 21 marked Iran’s strongest crude export week in nearly two months.
Hormuz traffic has accelerated sharply over the past week, according to Vortexa. In the last seven days, 133 transits were recorded, compared with 53 the previous week.
Claire Jungman, Director of Maritime Risk & Intelligence at Vortexa, told gCaptain that Iranian-linked vessels are not driving overall traffic through the strait.
“The recent surge is mostly Gulf NOC tonnage returning as the blockade unwinds,” Jungman said. “Iran-linked vessels have actually fallen as a share of throughput every month, from roughly 69% in March to about 18% in June, because mainstream volume is now diluting what was a largely Iranian and sanctioned flow during the blockade.”
Where Iran-linked vessels do dominate is on the China oil trade route.
“Iran-linked vessels account for about three-quarters of the China-bound laden tankers leaving via Hormuz,” Jungman said. “China is the clear number one destination for outbound laden crude and products, followed by India and the UAE.”
According to Vortexa, much of the volume associated with the UAE and Oman consists of ship-to-ship transfers.
The southern route along Omani waters is widely viewed as the preferred transit corridor because it is not subject to the same Iranian approval process.
Windward identified three Iran-flagged VLCCs loaded with approximately 4.89 million barrels of crude at Kharg Island between June 20 and June 22. All three vessels are bound for China and were tracked transiting the Strait between June 22 and June 23. A fourth dark VLCC also departed carrying an estimated 2 million barrels.
At least four recent transits over the past two days have used the Iranian route.
Despite signs of a gradual reopening, some tanker owners and operators say the risk remains too great.
“To take unmitigated liability risk here is not something owners are readily willing and able to do,” said Jake Scott, chief operating officer of Easterly Clear Ocean. “You’ve got crew members on board. Last week, ships were hit by drones. It’s still a fluid situation that everyone’s keeping an eye on. We take it day by day.”
Scott said insurance remains one of the biggest obstacles for vessel owners considering a transit.
“The insurance for some of these larger vessels is absurd,” Scott said. “You’re talking about $10 million just to get a ship out, and that’s only the insurance premium.
The master ultimately has the final say on whether to transit the strait, so if you’re going to go through, he needs to be compensated, and so does the crew for the additional risk.”
Easterly has no vessels stranded in the Middle East, although tankers owned by Womar, a company in which Easterly has an interest, remain in the region.
“We’ve gotten a few out when we were able to secure the insurance, but for some owners, they’re simply not willing to take unmitigated liability risk,” Scott said. “I’m talking about the risk of a spill, damage to the vessel, or harm to the crew.”
Operating without AIS can create additional challenges.
“You are doing old-school navigation,” Scott explained. “No AIS, no GPS, no lights. If there’s moonlight, you’re completely dark.”
One tanker owner told gCaptain that even with the U.S. Navy overseeing the Omani route through the strait, the possibility of an Iranian attack cannot be ruled out.
Scott agreed.
“The entire Gulf of Oman is within reach of Iran,” he said. “Until you get to the Indian Ocean, you’re at risk.”
Looking ahead, Scott said there is significant pent-up demand from vessels waiting to enter the Gulf once the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens. What remains uncertain, however, is the extent of damage to regional refineries and how quickly production can ramp back up.
“Every day is a new day,” Scott said. “The vessels are ready.”
