Allianz Commercial has warned that $125bn in vessel and cargo value is waiting in the Persian Gulf, putting the Strait of Hormuz disruption at the centre of a sharper risk debate for shipowners, cargo interests and marine insurers, according to Allianz Commercial’s Safety and Shipping Review 2026.
The insurer said Allianz Research identified around 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels of more than 100GT in the Persian Gulf waiting to resume operations after recent diplomatic breakthroughs. The vessels represent about 29m GT and have as many as 20,000 seafarers on board.
Allianz said the closure and reported mining of the Strait of Hormuz shows the structural importance of maritime chokepoints, where a single disruption can hit vessel operations, supply chains, insurance costs and crew welfare. With 90% of international trade transported by sea, stable routes remain critical to global commerce.
The report said shipping is moving into a “new maritime order” shaped by escalating security risks along strategic corridors, disruption of established trade routes, persistent uncertainty, higher risk premiums and a greater emphasis on resilience over pure cost efficiency.
“Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions to becoming increasingly complex and volatile,” said Thomas Lillelund, chief executive of Allianz Commercial.
Marine insurance cover remained available throughout the disruption, although hull and cargo premiums increased. Allianz said the bigger issue for owners has been the risk to crews and vessels when transiting a conflict zone. It said solid assurances of safe passage would be needed if traffic is to return to previous levels of up to 140 vessels a day.
Allianz also said the long-term safety trend remains positive. Global shipping incidents fell 16% to 2,818 in 2025 from 3,353 in 2024. Machinery damage or failure remained the main cause, with 1,505 incidents, followed by collisions at 260.
The East Mediterranean and Black Sea recorded the highest number of incidents at 622, followed by the British Isles at 619.
More than 900 total losses have been reported over the past decade for vessels over 100GT. Losses fell from 555 between 2016 and the end of 2020, an average of 111 a year, to 350 between 2021 and the end of 2025, an average of 70 and down 37%.
Allianz recorded 43 total losses in 2025, including more than 30 vessels over 500GT.
Fire remains a major loss driver. Allianz counted more than 200 fire incidents on large vessels in 2025, down from 2024 but still the second-highest total in a decade, with at least nine total losses.
The insurer also warned that larger ships are increasing general average exposure, with cargo contributions potentially reaching 50% of cargo value and exceeding US$100m where several thousand electric cars are involved.
Allianz Commercial is the commercial insurance business of Allianz Group serving corporate and specialty clients, including marine, aviation, property, liability, financial lines and other risk classes.
