The number of reported maritime casualties on vessels over 100 gross tons decreased by approximately 16% in 2025, falling to 2,818 cases compared to 3,353 in 2024. The most affected area was the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea with 622 incidents, closely followed by the British Isles with 619 reports.
The data comes from the latest Safety and Shipping Review by Allianz Commercial, the global division of the Allianz Group specializing in coverage for medium and large enterprises and complex risks.
According to the report, the main cause of global casualties is attributable to machinery failure or damage, which alone accounts for over half of the total with 1,505 cases. These are followed by collisions between vessels (260) and fires or explosions on board (218), the latter remaining among the major safety concerns.
The high incidence of technical failures raises particular alarm among operators: inflation on machinery claims has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels and repair costs continue to rise. This trend, the study warns, now risks being further exacerbated by recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The report highlights that in the last decade there have been 905 total losses of vessels over 100 gross tons (GT). Between 2016 and the end of 2020, 555 were recorded, with an average of 111 per year. This number fell to 350 between 2021 and the end of 2025, with an average of 70 per year and a 37% decrease compared to the previous five-year period. This latter figure reflects the positive effect of greater attention to safety measures, improved ship design and technology, and advances in risk management.
During 2025, 43 total losses were reported, of which over 30 involved vessels with a tonnage exceeding 500 GT.
The region of Southern China, Indochina, Indonesia and the Philippines represents the main global hotspot for losses both in the last year and in the last decade (255). A huge volume of imports and exports transits through this region, resulting in high levels of maritime traffic which is reflected in the number of incidents.
Looking to the future, the reshaping of industry forces is set to consolidate. According to the Safety and Shipping Review, growing geopolitical tensions are amplifying the impact of political risk and conflicts as potential causes of maritime losses. “Today the sector appears to be more exposed to risk in this area than at any other time in recent decades,” writes Allianz.
The report shines a spotlight on the conflict in the Middle East and the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, which – the insurance company states – has caused severe disruptions to naval operations, supply shortages, and strong psychological stress for crews forced to spend months on board under the threat of attacks.
The psychological impact of the war has been added to the pressures already inflicted by the Covid-19 pandemic, attacks on navigation in the Red Sea, piracy threats, and the rise of the shadow fleet (whose crews are more likely to face difficult working conditions).
Nel frattempo, l’abbandono dei marittimi è aumentato per il sesto anno consecutivo: lo scorso anno è stato registrato il record storico di oltre 6.000 lavoratori lasciati a terra.
Secondo Allianz Commercial, l’industria dello shipping faticherà a trattenere e reclutare marittimi in un momento di crescente domanda di lavoratori qualificati, trainata dall’automazione e dalla transizione ecologica, minacciando in ultima analisi la resilienza del settore e la stabilità della catena di fornitura globale.
Il conflitto in Medio Oriente ha rappresentato comunque per il settore un punto di svolta. “Gli assicuratori – è l’analisi del report – si trovano ad affrontare risarcimenti significativi nell’ambito delle coperture marittime per i danni causati da missili e droni a navi (tra cui portacontainer, petroliere e rinfusiere) e alle relative merci nella regione”.
Garantire la copertura assicurativa durante tutto il conflitto ha rappresentato una sfida significativa per gli addetti ai lavori.
Alla data del 15 giugno 2026, Allianz calcola che circa 1.150 navi mercantili (sopra le 100 GT), per un volume totale di 29 milioni di GT, stavano operando nelle acque del Golfo Persico, rappresentando un valore combinato stimato di navi e merci compreso nell’ordine dei 125 miliardi di dollari.
La chiusura senza precedenti dello Stretto di Hormuz solleva preoccupazioni sul futuro del commercio marittimo globale. Storicamente aperto anche durante conflitti come la guerra Iran-Iraq negli anni ’80, il suo blocco evidenzia la crescente vulnerabilità dell’industria dello shipping alle tensioni geopolitiche; l’escalation dei rischi per la sicurezza lungo i corridoi marittimi strategici interrompe infatti le rotte commerciali consolidate, costringendo a deviazioni e riducendo l’offerta effettiva di navi e materie prime.
This, in turn, has amplified pressures on the supply chain and reinforced a persistent volatility in freight rates.
“Maritime routes and strategically important infrastructure are increasingly viewed through the lens of national rivalries, while many countries are seeking to expand their naval capabilities to protect critical routes and supply chains,” the report’s editors observe, according to whom the reported proposals to impose transit taxes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz indicate a potential and profound shift in the global maritime order.
“Although any direct impact on shipping and oil transport costs would be significant, the deeper implication lies in the normalization of ‘tolling’ strategic waterways, where access could be priced, staggered, or politically conditioned,” warn those at Allianz, highlighting how the emergence of such an idea could set a dangerous precedent, extending beyond Hormuz to other global maritime passages, radically reshaping global trade and transforming freedom of navigation into a commodified and contested service rather than a shared international principle.
Navigating the matrix of geopolitical issues – from customs tariffs to regional conflicts and regulations – is the number one problem for shipowners and cargo operators for the future.
“The increasingly volatile and disruption-prone nature of global maritime trade routes is reinforcing the need for greater operational resilience; companies are shifting from ‘just-in-time’ supply chains to ‘just-in-case’ logics, prioritizing resilience over cost efficiency,” the analysts state.
The conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz underscore the need for politically aligned partners and adaptable strategies. “Shippers must demonstrate reliability despite disruptions, while simultaneously redirecting supply chains to mitigate risks. The industry must balance resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping trade dynamics.”
