The UP World LNG Shipping Index gained 0.94 points (0.48%) last week, closing at 197.74 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.95%. The UPI moderated its decline on above-average trading volume, though the weighted index continued to fall by 1.9%. The UPI remains above its 50-week moving average, so it still has room for a safe decline. The ratio of declining to advancing companies was 7:13. Qatari gas is expected to return in September according to ICIS, with at least 10 empty LNG tankers transiting westward through the Strait of Hormuz this week — the largest weekly number since the war began. Excelerate Energy led the gainers with +9%, while New Fortress Energy fell 22.4% to new lows.
UPI & SPX
The UP World LNG Shipping Index, which tracks 20 listed LNG shipping companies, gained 0.94 points (0.48%), closing at 197.74 points, while the S&P 500 index lost 1.95%. The chart below illustrates the performance of both indices with weekly data.
Broader View
The UPI moderated its decline again last week, though this time on above-average trading volume. Nevertheless, the weighted UPI (wUPI) continued to fall by 1.9%. The UPI remains above its 50-week moving average (equivalent to 200 days), so it still has room for a safe decline. The ratio of declining to advancing companies was 7:13.
According to Friday’s summary from Reuters, gas prices remained stable, with Qatari gas expected to return in September (according to ICIS).
While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is rising daily, ships are mostly avoiding the central area of the waterway, with many opting to hug the Omani side of the strait.
So far, at least 10 empty LNG tankers were seen transiting westward through the strait to load in Qatar this week, the largest weekly number since the war began on February 28.
The heatwave in Northwest Europe has pushed gas consumption to its highest level since March, exceeding last year’s levels, said Yahdian Falah, portfolio strategist at the German-based energy trading company Trianel, adding that gas consumption could revisit recent highs by mid-July. However, this is not expected to translate into higher prices amid improving supply, with Norwegian gas exports returning to pre-maintenance levels, he added.
In LNG freight, Atlantic and Pacific rates both slipped to $89,/day and $76,/day, respectively, according to Spark Commodities.
Constituents
New Fortress Energy (NASDAQ: NFE) recorded the largest decline, hitting a new low and falling 22.4%. The second-largest decline was seen by Korea Line Corporation (KRX: 005880), which fell just under 10% and returned to the range it had traded in for most of last year.
Other declines were significantly milder. BP (NYSE: BP) lost 5% due to internal developments and falling oil prices, while Dynagas LNG Partners (NYSE: DLNG) lost 4.8%. While BP reached its support level, DLNG broke out of its long-term range and bottomed out near the April 2025 price levels, below which, however, there is no nearby support.
Tsakos Energy Navigation (NYSE: TEN) lost 4%. Despite this, it remains in the high-price range. However, the decline was preceded by a failed breakout attempt. Therefore, the situation is not entirely positive.
Three companies recorded a 2% decline: Shell (NYSE: SHEL, -2.89%), NAKILAT (QSE: QGTS, -2.79%), and MISC (KLSE: 3816, -2.47%). Shell continues its downward return to pre-war prices and is now almost within reach of them.
NAKILAT has found stability and is trading within the base range from which it launched a new attempt at growth at the turn of the year. However, that attempt was reversed by the war. Thus, the current price level is indeed a sign of stabilisation. MISC has broken through its range but has not yet reached the lower end of the range.
ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADX: ADNOCLS) continued its decline from its peak prices last week. Nevertheless, the stock remains optimistic.
Chevron (NYSE: CVX) fell by 1.48%; for this stock as well, the main reason is the easing of geopolitical tensions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
FLEX LNG (NYSE: FLNG) lost just under one per cent but remains in a sideways range.
Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (TSE: 9104, -0.85%) and “K” Line (TSE: 9107, -0.69%) also edged slightly lower. While MOL pushed the price down, “K” Line remains in a sideways range.
In contrast, Excelerate Energy (NYSE: EE) posted the largest gain, up 9%. This led to a breakout above resistance and a move out of the sideways range, all on slightly above-average volume.
Two companies posted similar performance. COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (SS: 600026) and Capital Clean Energy Carriers (NASDAQ: CCEC) rose by 3.4%. COSCO sought to continue its significant growth for a second week, but the gains were scaled back to a below-average result. CCEC rebounded from support within its sideways range.
A third Japanese company, NYK Line (TSE: 9101), posted a 2.19% gain, though this appears to be merely a reaction to the previous decline, which pushed the stock into a price range it has traded in—with brief exceptions—since 2024.
Golar LNG (NASDAQ: GLNG) is trading within a sideways range near support. This time, the resulting movement was 0.3%.
Crystal Ball
Qatar has been temporarily sidelined among the conflict’s losers due to industrial damage to its facilities, whilst US LNG exporters—and European importers—emerge as the clear winners. However, the vulnerable Panama Canal and ongoing US-Chinese tensions warrant attention. We expect most of the rising US gas production will flow towards Europe. New global LNG producers should also benefit from this conflict, as energy source diversification becomes more important than ever—provided importing economies remain healthy enough to absorb higher energy costs.
The second quarter is typically the weakest seasonally, but this year will be different—geopolitical circumstances have knocked nearly 20% of global LNG production offline. While Europe still enjoys a certain advantage over Asia, it now needs gas, and rising prices are hitting the poorest consumers, such as those in Bangladesh or Pakistan, the hardest.
The outlook remains volatile, but positive in the long term. Companies with spot tankers are benefiting from high rates and longer distances. The gradual phasing out of steamers and the addition of new liquefaction capacity will continue to drive the sector forward.
Source: By Tomas Novotny,
