Container freight spot rates maintained their downward trajectory this week, as tariff uncertainty continued to plague the transpacific market and demand elsewhere failed to match supply.
However, the rising number of blanked sailings appears to have at least limited the weekly losses to single-digit declines.
Liner analyst John McCown noted in his monthly analysis this week that “the very early signs point to the industry having already blanked 81 sailings for April in the transpacific tradelane, well above the 51 sailings blanked during the monthly height of the pandemic”.
This week’s World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry saw its Shanghai-Los Anglese leg shed 2%, to finish the week at $2,617 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York routes lost 3%, to end at $3,611 per 40ft.
On both trades, spot rates have now fallen for two consecutive weeks, after a fortnight of rising pricing at the beginning of April, which suggested that turn-of-the-month general rate increases (GRIs) had stuck.
However, it also transpires that transpacific eastbound volumes were strong in March, with inbound shipments at the 10 largest US container ports up 11.2% year on year, according to data published by Mr McCown.
But he warned that the twin threats of trade tariffs and the US Trade Representative’s proposed port call fees on Chinese-built ships and Chinese carriers could send this growth into reverse.
“Growth in 2025 will be well off the 2024 pace. In fact, if the tariffs and USTR ship fees in place now continue, my view is that it is almost certain there will be a double-digit percent reduction in annual volume for all of 2025, compared with 2024,” he said.
On the Asia-Europe trades, the WCI showed a 1% week-on-week decline on its Shanghai-Rotterdam leg, to finish the week at $2,312 per 40ft, while its Shanghai-Genoa leg was unchanged, at $3,012 per 40ft.
Looking ahead, today’s Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which records rates quoted this week and often gives an indication of pricing the following week, shows spot rates on transpacific routes to the US west and east coast remaining flat, while Asia-Europe trades could see further slight declines.
The SCFI’s Shanghai-North Europe base port leg this week declined 4% week on week, to finish today at $2,520 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Mediterranean base port route was down 1.5%, to $4,258 per 40ft.
Meanwhile, transatlantic spot rates continued to hold steady, as they have for the best part of a month, with the WCI’s Rotterdam-New York leg seeing a 1% decline, to $2,109 per 40ft, while the backhaul route was up 1%, to $825 per 40ft.
The relative strength of the trade has seen carriers announce the introduction of peak season surcharges (PSS) next month, possibly in anticipation of tariff-related front-loading.
Hapag-Lloyd today said it would apply a PSS of $600 per teu and $900 per 40ft on shipments to Mexico and Canada from 15 May, and on shipments to the US from 25 May.
Similarly, CMA CGM is set to introduce a PSS of $400 per teu and $800 per 40ft on all North Europe to North America shipments from 15 May.
