BIMCO Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia said, “We expect bulker (dry bulk carrier) deliveries to gradually increase this year and in 2026, reaching 41.2 million Deadweight Tons (DWT), the highest level in the last six years. Bulker newbuilding contracts remained strong in 2023 and 2024, and many of the vessels ordered during this period are expected to be delivered this year and next.”
Of the 59.3 million DWT of vessels expected to be delivered by the end of 2026, the Panamax segment accounts for 33.9%, while the Supramax segment makes up 28.3%. Orders for these segments increased in 2023 and 2024 as they benefited from relatively higher freight rates.
Although Capesize newbuilding contracts rose in 2024 with the support of high freight rates, this segment is expected to account for only 23.9% of deliveries. Capesize vessels are the largest in size and take longer to build. As a result, most orders placed in 2024 will only be delivered after 2026.
While 9.1% of the vessels to be delivered can use alternative fuels, 10.7% are renewable. Among the capable vessels, LNG and methanol are the most popular choices for alternative fuels, accounting for 37.1% and 34.9% of the capacity, respectively.
Gouveia stated, “Despite the increase in deliveries, the dry bulk fleet is growing at only half the pace of the 2010s. During that period, strong Chinese demand was the primary driver of dry bulk ton-mile demand, thereby triggering newbuilding contracts. Since then, demand growth has slowed, and in recent years, longer voyage distances have partially offset weaker cargo growth.”
So far in the 2020s, sanctions on Russian coal and the diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Red Sea have been key factors for voyage distances. This has increased dry bulk vessel demand beyond expectations and, as a result, led to a slowdown in fleet renewal. With contracts low, older vessels that would normally be recycled have continued to operate.
This year, freight rates have averaged lower due to weak demand and may remain subdued throughout 2025 and 2026. Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) indicate that the market expects low freight rates for the Panamax and Supramax segments, while the Capesize segment may fare better.
Gouveia noted, “The increase in deliveries in the Panamax and Supramax segments will contribute to worsening market conditions for these segments. Consequently, this could lead to a slight and gradual increase in the recycling of older and less competitive vessels in these segments.”
