Repost: A panel session at the IBIA Annual Convention 2022 event in Houston next week will take stock of the bunker market’s reaction to this year’s geopolitical turmoil.
The panel, titled ‘Coping in a World of Extreme Price and Interest-Rate Volatility’, will be one of the opening sessions at the event on Tuesday.
The bunker market has been overwhelmingly driven by geopolitics and the global economy in 2022. Having started the year in an uncertain state of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the market was soon overturned by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February.
That dynamic has had a considerable impact on global oil markets and in turn marine fuel. Indeed, Ship & Bunker‘s G20-VLSFO Index of prices across 20 leading bunkering ports was at $/mt at the start of 2022, and almost doubled to a peak of $1,/mt on June 9 as the war in Ukraine drove concerns of sanctions against Russia limiting bunker supply.
But prices have dropped sharply again as nerves over a potential global recession overtake supply issues. The G20-VLSFO Index stood at $/mt on Wednesday, down by 66% from June’s record high.
The IBIA panel next week will consist of the following speakers, moderated by Ship & Bunker managing editor Jack Jordan:
The availability of credit for the bunker market is likely to be a key point of discussion. This year’s surging prices, combined with the environment of rising interest rates amid global inflation, have raised the industry’s cost of working capital sharply, exacerbating the pressures towards consolidation.
As an analysis last month by Ship & Bunker showed, this year’s volatility has also lead to a much changed relationship between crude and bunkers, adding an additional layer of complexity for both buyers and suppliers alike.
Changes in global bunker tradeflows are also a significant issue for debate, with the US and EU’s efforts to phase out Russian oil imports driving more high-sulfur product towards the Asia-Pacific market.
