Richer U.S. carrier trade-in deals and extended 24- to 36-month financing plans are giving Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) a boost in this year’s iPhone upgrade cycle.
Carriers are offering around $100 more in subsidies for new iPhones this year, which could result in a strong upgrade cycle for the iPhone 17.
Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan reiterated a Buy rating on Apple, with a price forecast of $270.
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Mohan says carrier promotions make iPhones more affordable by bundling device financing with wireless service on one monthly bill, sometimes making the phone free with an eligible trade-in on select plans.
He highlights that buyers can spread payments over 24 or 36 months.
The analyst notes that, versus last year, subsidies on the new iPhone 17 family are about $100 higher to offset the iPhone 17 Pro’s higher entry price, which now starts at $1,099 for 256GB compared with the iPhone 16 Pro’s $999 for 128GB.
According to T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) management, iPhone activations are up by double digits across both new and existing customers.
Mohan adds that Verizon Communications Inc.’s (NYSE: VZ) commentary also points to strong upgrade activity within its installed base this quarter, which he believes could carry through to the iPhone launch window.
Finally, the analyst observes that current lead times show broader iPhone 17 shipping estimates extending versus last year, while Pro and Pro Max timing appears similar to last year.
Mohan says trade-in offers imply carriers are nudging upgrades on roughly a two-to-four-year cycle, since the richest credits, up to about $1,100, depending on provider, are reserved for newer models, typically iPhone 13 and later.
He adds that criteria have loosened, with all three carriers now taking devices in any condition, including cracked or non-working phones.
Mohan notes that even with trade-ins, customers still face upfront costs: an activation fee of $35–$40, plus taxes calculated on the phone’s full retail price.
He adds that opting for AppleCare+ raises the tab by $/$139.
In a scenario using the highest available trade-in credits, Mohan estimates initial outlays of roughly $229–$234 for an iPhone 17 and $380–$385 for an iPhone 17 Pro Max.
As for carriers, Mohan points out a few strings attached: buyers must move to a specific unlimited tier, which can cost more than basic or lower-tier plans, and the promotional phone credits are applied monthly over the installment term. He says those terms typically run 24 months at T-Mobile and 36 months at Verizon and AT&T (NYSE: T).
