Analysis by Aegir Insights confirms suggestions by other analysts that, in the near-term, China could become the world’s leading floating offshore wind province
The offshore wind analytics company believes in the next few years, China could come to dominate the market in terms of installed capacity, but the European market will overtake it in the years that follow. It said the global pipeline of floating wind projects has reached 150 GW, but what it calls the the ‘buildout curve’ has flattened somewhat in Europe.
According to Aegir Insights’ latest Floating Intelligence briefing (Floating Intelligence Q3), the world will have close to 150 MW of floating offshore wind installed by end of 2022. Around 200 MW is under construction with expected commissioning in 2023. 90% of this is in Europe and mainly takes the form of pilot and demonstration projects. In the mid-2020s, the rate of installation will increase, but will really take off from 2030 onwards.
In a briefing issued earlier in 2022 (Floating Intelligence Q2), Aegir Insights forecast that by 2030, the majority of floating wind installation would take place in key markets in Europe. But having reviewed the market for the Q3 briefing, the company’s analysts believe that slower progress in Europe – and significant announcements in China – have shifted the weight towards Asia.
Aegir Insights now expects global floating wind capacity of 6.2 GW by 2030, with 4 GW in Asia and 2 GW in European markets, along with 200 MW of demonstration projects in the US. Overall, Aegir Insight’s 2030 capacity forecasts capacity has been reduced by almost 650 MW compared with Q2 2022, as a result of a lower forecast for Europe, partially offset by a higher forecast for China.
“Build-out in Europe is forecast to happen more slowly than initially anticipated,” said Aegir Insights head of research and analytics Maria Bohsen. “Europe has been leading the race to get floating wind projects in the water, but momentum is slowing due to slow permitting and uncertain routes to market.
“At the same time,” she explained, “as buildout in Europe slows, China has been picking up the pace and could be the first country to commission a 1-GW floating project.”
The Q3 briefing notes that despite statements from policymakers in Europe about speeding up deployment and simplifying permitting, not many have achieved this in practice.
Aegir forecasts 46 GW of floating wind capacity globally by 2035. Europe is expected to pick up speed after 2030 and is expected to dominate global build-out in the first half of the next decade. Despite the rise of the Chinese floating wind market and its fast pace of growth, Aegir Insights believes that after 2030, Europe will regain its leading position in terms of installed capacity. It also expects a number of new markets will install their first floating projects.
The period after 2030 is also expected to see the take-off of the US floating wind market. Ms Bohsen told OWJ the US “has good potential” for floating offshore wind, and states such as California depend on the technology because of water depths.
Despite the pace of growth in the global floating wind market, Aegir Insights expects the industry to settle on the use of a relatively small number of foundations. It notes that an ever-growing number of floating foundation concepts are being introduced – there are now more than 50 potential manufacturers – but believes only some of these will make it to market. “Volume is required to optimise floating foundation costs and make floating projects economically attractive,” Ms Bohsen told OWJ. “That means many floating foundation concepts will be eliminated.”
As she also noted, with the development of floating offshore windfarms, a new type of project developer has emerged in the form of companies that originally specialised in technology development. “Floating foundation manufacturers have been central to the development of demonstration projects so far, and we are now seeing them get involved in large-scale commercial projects as well,” she concluded.
*As highlighted by OWJ in September 2022, analysis by Westwood shows that mainland China is fast-tracking development of floating wind.
