Influences hampering commodity import demand in some countries have gained greater prominence recently. Assuming the pattern continues, growth in world seaborne dry bulk trade is likely to be constrained, and the annual volume during 2025 may see little or no increase compared with last year.
A beneficial change in underlying trends affecting dry bulk trade is the modest upgrading of economic growth estimates contained in the International Monetary Fund’s latest (end-July) analysis. Global GDP growth in 2025 is now expected to grow by 3.0%. Although still below last year’s 3.3% rise, this revised figure is a better prospective outcome than foreseen a few months ago when there was more uncertainty about international trade policy changes.
COAL
Accumulating evidence from changes in the past six months, coupled with signs (albeit tentative) of how the trend could evolve over the months ahead, suggest that world seaborne coal trade may see a sizeable decline this year. Among major importers weaker trends in China, India and South Korea are notable features.
The negative perspective is reinforced by the International Energy Agency’s mid-year coal market update. According to a view of prospects for 2025 as a whole, IEA analysts suggest that “we expect global coal trade to decline, reversing the upward trend observed in 2024”. Global movements in the dominant steam coal trade segment, and also in the coking coal category, are both expected to be about 7% lower this year at about 1,450mt (million tonnes) in total (including overland).
IRON ORE
Prospects for iron ore trade point to difficulties in achieving further upwards momentum in the current year, with a possibility of an annual decrease occurring. While many countries may be able to maintain import volumes, others are likely to experience weakening influences.
A reduction of 19mt or 3% in China’s iron ore imports to 592mt during the first half of this year, compared with 611mt in last year’s same period, has been revealed. Currently it seems unlikely that the decrease will be fully or more than offset in the second half, resulting in an annual decline. Some positive changes among countries comprising the remaining quarter of world seaborne trade may not be sufficient to prevent a setback in the global trend.
GRAIN & SOYA
Forecasts for world grain and soya trade in the period ahead provide a favourable outlook. During the /26 trade year starting October 2025 (beginning July for wheat) global imports of grain could recover from the previous year’s downturn while /meal imports increase again.
World trade in wheat, corn and other coarse grains, plus soyabeans and meal could increase by 29mt in /26, according to a Bulk Shipping Analysis calculation based on US Department of Agriculture estimates. The total of 715mt predicted is 4% higher than the estimated 686mt total in the current /25 year, which is a similar percentage below trade in the previous twelve months.
An upturn in China’s imports is foreseen as one of the principal contributions.
MINOR BULKS
One of the larger and more prominent components of the minor bulks seaborne trade category is aluminium raw materials — bauxite and the processed alumina — which saw robust growth of about 10% in 2024 and looks set to experience another possibly larger expansion. Higher imports into China could enable the global total to grow by over 15% in 2025, reaching around 255mt.
BULK CARRIER FLEET
Cargo carrying capacity in the world bulk carrier fleet, this year, will be augmented by newbuilding deliveries with a total possibly exceeding the 34 million deadweight tonnes delivered from shipbuilding yards in 2024. Among vessel size groups, some variations are likely. Increases in the Handysize, Handymax and Panamax segments could contrast with a lower Capesize volume.
