Image source: Maersk
Shipping Industry Network news, with the arrival of the National Day Golden Week, although liner companies have further reduced capacity, spot freight rates on major trade routes continue to face downward pressure. Analysts point out that current spot freight rates have fallen back to—or even below—the levels seen before the Red Sea crisis at the end of 2023. At the same time, the divergence between the charter market and spot freight rate trends indicates that liner companies still prioritize “seizing” market share.
Specifically, as of September 26, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1114.52 points, down 7.0% from the previous period, with the rate of decline narrowing.
On the Europe route, weak supply and demand fundamentals led to a continued decline in spot market booking prices. On September 26, the market freight rate (sea freight and surcharges) from Shanghai port to European base ports was $971 per TEU, down 7.7% from the previous period. On the Mediterranean route, the market situation was similar to Europe, with freight rates continuing to adjust. On September 26, the market freight rate (sea freight and surcharges) from Shanghai port to Mediterranean base ports was $1485 per TEU, down 9.3% from the previous period.
On the North America route, transport demand showed no improvement, and spot market booking prices continued to fall. On September 26, the Shanghai-US West freight rate fell 10.8% to $1460 per FEU; the Shanghai-US East freight rate fell 6.7% to $2385 per FEU.
Meanwhile, as of September 25, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 8% week-on-week to approximately $1761 per FEU.
Drewry noted that the WCI has declined for 15 consecutive weeks. Freight rates on the two major trade lanes, Transpacific and Asia-Europe, fell simultaneously again. Drewry expects spot freight rates to continue facing pressure in the coming week.
Specifically, on routes from China, Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 9% to $1735 per FEU, and Shanghai-Genoa fell 7% to $1990 per FEU. Meanwhile, Shanghai-New York fell 8% week-on-week to $3278 per FEU, and Shanghai-Los Angeles fell 10% to $2311 per FEU.
Lars Jensen, an analyst at Vespucci Maritime, pointed out that the current spot freight rate level has fallen back to—or even below—the level before the Red Sea rerouting at the end of 2023, a time when liner companies were operating at a loss.
At the same time, VHBS analysts noted that the container shipping charter market has not significantly “deteriorated.” Compared to the same period last year, the current average charter rate is still about 20% higher, indicating the charter market remains very healthy. However, charterers’ insistence against rate increases is understandable. More notably, there is a trend of charterers requesting shorter charter periods for ships below 2000 TEU.
The container shipping industry’s “resilience” is better equipped to withstand downside risks.
In short, forecasting the container shipping market is highly complex. The good news is that container trade has seen strong growth over the past two years. The bad news is that due to uncertainty caused by Trump 2.0 tariffs, trade growth is expected to slow to around 1.7% in 2026.
However, although US tariffs pose a risk to global trade, it does not mean the “end of globalization,” unless there is evidence of a shift in US consumption and import patterns.
In other words, a “structural” shift in trade may have a different impact than “de-globalization.” A decline in US import volume does not necessarily lead to a “global recession.” The structural changes currently occurring in global container trade are still promoting the development of container trade.
Or perhaps, a new “surprise” will once again save the container shipping industry in 2026, whether it’s a new “black swan” event or global demand proving more resilient than economists predict. Even in the worst-case scenario, liner companies with ample cash reserves are better positioned to weather a market downturn. In conclusion, anything is possible!
