According to Bloomberg, Russia has experienced a significant drop in its weekly crude oil exports, primarily due to a decrease in shipments from the Baltic region following recent Ukrainian drone attacks on critical infrastructure. The average seaborne exports fell to approximately 3.18 million barrels per day for the week ending September 14, marking a decline of 934,000 barrels daily—the steepest drop since July of the previous year.
Despite this downturn in weekly figures, the four-week moving average saw a slight increase to 3.46 million barrels per day from a revised figure of 3.42 million barrels as of September 7. This uptick can be attributed to higher volumes recorded in the preceding week driven by Urals crude shipments from both Black Sea and Baltic ports.
The drone strikes targeted Russia’s Primorsk terminal last week, leading to temporary operational halts and damage to two tankers. Consequently, exports from this terminal plummeted to their lowest levels since late July. Similarly, operations at Ust-Luga were severely impacted; flows dropped by half compared to the previous week due to strikes affecting three pumping stations that supply this port.
The ongoing focus on Ukraine’s strategic targeting of Russian oil facilities—from ports through refineries—has raised concerns among traders regarding potential long-term supply disruptions. Monitoring these shipping patterns provides valuable insights into market dynamics.
Sustained attacks on refineries have reduced processing capabilities within Russia, potentially increasing available crude for export; however, damage at key export terminals may limit overall output increases. Following these incidents, Transneft reportedly restricted storage capacity within its pipeline network and hinted that producers might need to scale back production if conditions worsen—a claim they later retracted.
A total of 29 tankers transported around 22.26 million barrels of Russian crude during the week ending September 14—down from about 28.79 million barrels across 38 vessels previously reported.
The gross revenue generated from Moscow’s oil exports saw a notable decline—around $372 million less than before—the largest weekly decrease since November last year. Revenue for the week was estimated at $1.28 billion—a stark contrast against $1.66 billion recorded previously and reflecting a significant drop-off in earnings amid fluctuating global prices for Urals and other grades.
The volume directed towards Asian markets increased slightly during late August into mid-September with an average flow reaching approximately3.08 millionbarrels daily over four weeks up until September14th—up marginally from prior figures indicating steady demand despite geopolitical tensions impacting logistics routes globally.
Shipments heading towards Turkey remained stable while those destined for Syria showed slight growth.
