Drewry’s container port capacity forecast
There is an increased appetite for higher-risk greenfield projects from global terminal operators as they seek to deliver long-term growth according to the latest report from Drewry.
Container shipping’s post-pandemic recovery has boosted the global terminal capacity outlook, with projections for an annual rise of 2.4% to reach 1.38bn teu by 2026.
However, the worsening economic and geopolitical situation has led to a downgrading of the cargo demand outlook.
Therefore, container port utilisation is now projected to moderate to 70% in 2025 compared to last year’s projection of 75%.
While 70% of terminal operators’ investment plans remain focussed on existing assets, there has been a notable increase in the number of greenfield projects.
In particular, CMA Terminals, Hutchison Ports and TIL are expected to add 4m teu or additional greenfield capacity by 2026.
Eleanor Hadland, author of the report and Drewry’s senior analyst for ports and terminals said: “The renewed appetite for greenfield projects shows improved confidence in the market outlook.
“However, the ability of CMA Terminals and TIL to secure volume guarantees from CMA CGM and MSC gives these companies an advantage over non-carrier affiliated operators.”
Drewry noted that supply chain disruption had resulted in increased cargo dwell times in 2021, generating additional storage charges.
This lifted terminal operators’ revenue growth above that which could be justified on the basis of volume recovery alone.
Port congestion does not appear to have adversely impacted financial performance, despite the widespread decline in productivity levels, according to the analyst.
Revenue raising mechanisms including paid-for overtime and storage charges have so far proven to be sufficient to offset the additional congestion-related operating costs.
Operators also cited the continuing cost control measures implemented in response to the pandemic as having a positive impact on margins.
Hadland added: “Once global supply chain disruption eases, which is now expected in H123, there is heightened risk that revenue gains will retreat as dwell times return to pre-pandemic level.”
Last year, capital expenditure bounced back with a 31% year-on-year rise, but operators now face longer lead times for handling equipment and rapidly rising costs.
Drewry noted that the pace of fund raising has slowed since 2020, with rising interest rates putting a brake on the market.
In general, favourable terminal operator financial performance has translated into robust balance sheets.
With the exception of COSCO Shipping Ports and ICTSI, net debt fell, leading to a reduction in net gearing by 8.5% to 54.7%.
Among the 20 global terminal operators, APM Terminals reported the largest absolute increase in equity-adjusted volumes, with volumes up by 4.7m teu, representing an increase of 10.3%.
Growth in equity-adjusted throughput for the 20 companies classified by Drewry was 7.0%, marginally higher than the 6.8% growth in global port handling recorded in 2021.
The leading operators handled over 48% of the global port volumes on an equity-adjusted basis, stable on a like-for-like basis when compared to 2020.
