Recently, the “Gemini Cooperation” formed by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced plans to increase schedule reliability to over 80%, drawing industry attention. However, can the long-standing challenge of vessel schedule delays truly be resolved? Drewry believes that all stakeholders should still maintain a cautious attitude towards this.
During a recent Maersk investor event, its CEO Vincent Clerc revealed that the company has begun exploring the possibility of charging a corresponding service premium to ensure vessels arrive at ports on time. However, he emphasized that this idea is contingent on the Gemini Cooperation first proving it can consistently provide highly reliable services.
Yet, actual operational data reveals existing challenges. According to data from Drewry’s *Container Forecaster Weekly*, the average waiting time for container ships arriving at European ports in October has extended to 1.9 days, indicating that liner companies are still generally facing pressure to maintain their established schedules.
Figure 1 Average Vessel Waiting Times at Major Ports in October (Days)
The Causes of Schedule Delays are Complex and Diverse
The factors leading to schedule delays are multifaceted, primarily including: port strikes, terminal congestion, adverse weather, infrastructure failures, unforeseen incidents (such as the Ever Given Suez Canal blockage), cargo rollovers, and planned voyage adjustments. It must be noted that a significant portion of these factors are beyond the direct control of shipping lines or ports.
Reliability Data Shows Fluctuations
By analyzing port stay times and schedule reliability (measured as the percentage of vessels arriving within 24 hours of their forecasted arrival time, predicted 2-6 weeks in advance), Drewry found that after five consecutive months of improvement, the on-time arrival rate for the Asia-Europe trade lane dropped from 44% to 39% in October. Market feedback indicates that feeder vessels currently face particularly high risks of delay at European ports.
Figure 2 Correlation Analysis Between Port Stay Times and Schedule Reliability
The Value of Reliability Improvement and Alliance Performance Differences
Drewry analysis suggests that improving schedule reliability will bring significant benefits to multiple parties including ports, shippers, and freight forwarders, specifically reflected in reducing demurrage costs, optimizing terminal operational efficiency, and lowering inland transportation costs, among other dimensions.
In the comparison of alliances on the Asia-Europe trade lane, vessels in the Gemini Cooperation continued to maintain the highest on-time arrival rate, while their voyage cancellation rate also remained low. This performance places Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd in a relatively leading position in terms of service quality.
Figure 3 Comparison of Schedule Reliability Levels Among Alliances on the Asia-Europe Trade Lane
Market Discussion on Premiums for On-Time Service
Regarding the idea of shipping lines potentially charging extra fees for on-time service, there are differing opinions within the industry: Shippers believe that providing a fundamentally on-time service should be a core responsibility of liner companies, not a value-added option requiring additional payment.
Operational Bottlenecks at European Ports
Major European ports are generally operating under high-pressure conditions with limited spare capacity. This operational environment means that delays at a single port can easily create a ripple effect, spreading through the network to subsequent ports of call, thereby exacerbating overall congestion levels and limiting room for contingency adjustments.
Outlook: Improvement Expected, Complete Eradication Difficult
Drewry’s supply chain advisory team is currently discussing strategies to cope with schedule delays with multiple shipper companies, covering multi-layered solutions from short-term contingencies to long-term planning. Based on the current industry situation, while the problem of schedule delays is expected to be brought under a certain degree of control, achieving complete elimination remains unrealistic.
Drewry will continue to track key indicators such as schedule reliability, blank sailings, cargo dwell times, and port congestion to provide industry participants with trend analysis and operational benchmarking references.
