Shipping Industry News: Despite geopolitical factors such as Trump 2.0 tariffs, “Section 301 investigations,” and the Middle East situation, the 2025 container shipping market seems to have “stumbled upon” a “supply-demand equilibrium,” consistently outperforming other sectors.
Supply-demand balance is the core issue in shipping industry development. Overall, Alphaliner data shows that global container fleet capacity is operating at full capacity, with idle vessel numbers remaining low.
In fact, over the past 18 months, analysts have repeatedly warned of an impending “overcapacity” crisis in the container market, primarily due to the delivery of new vessels ordered during the pandemic surge, while shipping demand is normalizing after the post-pandemic “revenge growth.” However, subsequent Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and route diversions once again rescued the 2024 container shipping industry.
It must be acknowledged that while the world may call Trump “unreliable” or “the Know-It-All,” he undeniably wields influence—his tariff-related tweets can instantly roil the container shipping market, triggering “shipment pauses” and “preemptive shipping surges.”
Analysts note: “The supply-demand fundamentals of the container market change almost weekly (or even daily).”
Overall, on the demand side, Trump 2.0 tariffs are undoubtedly the “decisive factor”; on the supply side, the Red Sea crisis is another key variable.
BIMCO predicts strong demand prospects for the container shipping market.
Mr. Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, stated: “We maintain our view that container demand prospects remain stable—consistent with previous reports. While new U.S. trade policies introduce uncertainty, they have not altered this outlook. The 2025-2026 supply-demand balance may weaken slightly, mainly because the possibility of normalization for the Red Sea-Suez Canal route has been ruled out.”
Meanwhile, Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data shows that global container throughput in the first five months of 2025 grew 4.3% year-on-year. Despite the two-month lag in CTS data, current market conditions indicate strong cargo volumes on most routes except U.S. routes.
As of July 18, 2025, Alphaliner data shows global container fleet capacity grew 4.1% to 7,354 vessels/32.72 million TEU, with 165 new vessels adding 1.28 million TEU.
In short, despite the two-year lag in new vessel orders and deliveries, the container shipping market seems to have unexpectedly achieved balance. Is this luck or inevitability?
Spot Freight Rates Fall to Pre-Tariff Levels and Stabilize
Analysts point out that data shows China’s export container shipping market is generally stable, with declining freight rates on most routes dragging down the composite index.
Specifically, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 1,646.90 points on July 18, down 5.0% from the previous period.
Image source: Shipping Industry Network, Xinde Marine
European route demand remained stable, with freight rates slightly declining. On July 18, the Shanghai-Europe base port market rate (ocean freight and surcharges) was $2,079/TEU, down 1.0% from the previous period. Mediterranean route trends mirrored Europe, with the Shanghai-Mediterranean base port rate at $2,528/TEU, down 5.2%.
North American route demand lacked further growth momentum, pressuring freight rates downward. The Shanghai-U.S. West Coast rate fell 2.4% to $2,142/FEU, while the Shanghai-U.S. East Coast rate plunged 13.4% week-on-week to $3,612/FEU.
Over the same period, as of July 17, the Drewry World Container Index (WCI) fell 2.6% week-on-week to approximately $2,602/FEU.
Drewry noted that the WCI has declined for five consecutive weeks, indicating that the U.S. import surge triggered by tariff “pauses” did not have the expected lasting impact.
Among China-origin routes, Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 1% to $3,334/FEU, and Shanghai-Genoa dropped 1% to $3,450/FEU. Shanghai-New York fell 6% week-on-week to $4,539/FEU but remained 24% higher than May 8 (10 weeks prior). Shanghai-Los Angeles declined 4% to $2,817/FEU, still 4% above the level 10 weeks ago.
Alphaliner data as of July 18, 2025, shows global container fleet capacity grew 4.1% over the past six months to 7,354 vessels/32.72 million TEU, with 165 new vessels adding 1.28 million TEU.
In fact, Alphaliner data reveals that as of July 18, weekly transatlantic capacity reached 166,780 TEU, up 19,921 TEU (+13.6%) from January 6, 2025. Weekly transpacific capacity stood at 573,747 TEU, up 12,917 TEU (+2.3%) year-on-year. Weekly Asia-Europe capacity was 507,976 TEU, up 27,133 TEU (+5.6%) year-on-year.
With the Trump 2.0 tariff shockwave fading, this reflects capacity expansion on major routes ahead of peak season.
Capacity Changes Among Top Liner Companies
The container shipping market’s biggest moat was once fleet size. Clearly, each liner company now has a unique fleet development strategy, especially amid alliance restructuring. Top liners tend to over-order new vessels to meet future market demand.
Alphaliner data shows MSC’s capacity officially surpassed 6 million TEU on July 19, 2024, making it the only liner giant with capacity exceeding 6 million TEU.
To date, MSC’s capacity has grown by 410,000 TEU (+6.5%). MSC now operates 926 vessels with total capacity of 6.714 million TEU (648 owned/278 chartered), capturing an unprecedented 20.6% market share. Additionally, MSC holds orders for 129 new vessels (~2.171 million TEU)—exceeding the total current capacity of the world’s sixth-largest liner, ONE (Ocean Network Express).
MSC’s current capacity leads second-place Maersk by 2.12 million TEU, also surpassing ONE’s total capacity.
Since losing its title as the world’s largest liner, Maersk has refused to engage in a capacity arms race with MSC, maintaining global capacity between 4.2-4.4 million TEU. Its current fleet capacity is near 4.6 million TEU, growing 4.0% (190,000 TEU) this year, primarily to transition from the 2M Alliance to the “Gemini” network.
Notably, Alphaliner data shows CMA CGM’s capacity has also surpassed 4 million TEU, reaching 4.014 million TEU, becoming the third liner after MSC and Maersk to achieve this milestone.
PIL Records Highest Capacity Growth
Alphaliner data shows Pacific International Lines (PIL) grew capacity by 10.6% this year, the highest among top liners. Among major players, only ZIM saw a decline, dropping 2.4% (18,457 TEU).
Top Liner Container Ship Orders
Recently, MSC placed additional orders for 22,000 TEU ultra-large container ships at two Chinese shipyards—four at one yard and two at another. It also upgraded six LNG dual-fuel 19,000 TEU vessel orders at Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding to 22,000 TEU.
MSC currently holds orders for 129 vessels/2.17 million TEU, accounting for 32.3% of its existing capacity. Overall, MSC has ordered 54 ultra-large container ships exceeding 20,000 TEU, worth approximately $12 billion, indicating its need for more such vessels to independently operate Asia-Europe routes.
Maersk has 50 vessels/682,000 TEU on order, representing 14.9% of its total capacity. CMA CGM holds 94 vessels/1.489 million TEU on order, accounting for 37.1% of its existing capacity.
Alphaliner notes: “With the second-largest orderbook after MSC, CMA CGM could challenge Maersk’s position in the coming years.”
Wan Hai and PIL’s orderbooks represent 68.5% and 48.4% of their existing capacity, respectively, signaling significant fleet expansions to prepare for future global shipping competition.
On July 17, Yang Ming announced its board approved orders for seven 15,000 TEU LNG dual-fuel container ships at Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries, part of its fleet optimization plan, with deliveries expected in 2028-2029.
Yang Ming Chairman Dr. Cheng Cheng-mount also stated: “We will propose building 20,000 TEU-class vessels for Europe routes to meet export demand.” This suggests even the most cautious Yang Ming is adapting, moderately expanding capacity to align with global trade trends.
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