Brussels, 27 October (Argus) — The EU is seeking to “inject” political momentum at the upcoming UN Cop 30 climate summit. That probably means promising a CO2 emissions reduction of up to 72.5pc by 2035, against a 1990 baseline. But, just a few weeks ahead of the climate talks in Belem, Brazil, the EU has still to formally agree on anything more than a statement of intent regarding its nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan.
The bloc’s climate credibility is “rock solid” says EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, a former centre-right Dutch foreign and finance minister. He claims a mandate to negotiate at Cop 30. “I’m positive that we will manage to have the 2035 target also formally before we walk into Belem,” Hoekstra says. He can boast latest formal figures indicating that the EU has cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 37pc since 1990, despite a 68pc rise in its GDP. The EU also only accounts for 6pc of global emissions. In the second quarter of 2025, 54pc of the EU’s net power generation came from renewables.
And EU environment ministers could, on 4 November, still formally give a negotiating mandate to Hoekstra for the NDC, just days ahead of talks in Brazil on 10-21 November. The ministers could even agree to a joint position on the bloc’s 2040 GHG reduction target. The NDC, or 2035 target, could have been straightforward maths, with an indicative GHG reduction touted of 72.5pc — midway between a 90pc reduction by 2040 and a 55pc reduction by 2030. Slovakia, though, insisted on a lower target, eroding the target cut to 66.25pc.
Another unhappy signal is the EU leaders’ meeting on 23-24 October, which did not mention the commission’s July proposal for a net domestic GHG cut of 90pc by 2040, compared with 1990 levels. No mention either is made of the NDC. In vague language, EU leaders merely underline the importance of contributing to the global emission reduction effort in a way that is both “ambitious and cost-efficient”, also with an adequate level of “high-quality” international credits.
While wavering on 2035 and 2040 climate targets, the bloc is beefing up its carbon border adjustment mechanism to prevent energy intensive industries relocating outside the bloc. That means including more sectors, supporting EU exporters and preventing resource shuffling by others selling greener products to the EU and more carbon-intensive goods domestically. “We’re not asking anything from anyone [that] we’re not asking from ourselves,” Hoekstra tells Argus.
If in doubt about itself, the EU can always point at what others are not doing. It is a major blow that the US has “checked out”, Hoekstra says. “Part of [climate] leadership is also to articulate what we expect of others,” he adds, pointing out the lack of ambition from other major emitters, notably China.
“This Cop is extremely tricky. We know what it means when a US president leaves the Paris agreement,” Austrian MEP and Cop 30 delegate Lena Schilling tells Argus. “It should have been the moment the EU says: ‘we will commit to our climate ambition’.” While welcoming a non-binding parliamentary resolution on 23 October that called for a 72.5pc GHG cut by 2035 and an end to fossil fuel subsidies, Schilling references a string of legal changes weakening the EU’s Green Deal. That includes a recent agreement to delete obligatory climate neutrality plans for large firms under its corporate sustainability due diligence directive.
The NDC, or 2035 target will be decided solely by EU states. But the 2040 target also needs to be agreed with the European parliament. The 90pc target is not acceptable right now for EU states and parliament, Bulgarian centre-right EPP member Radan Kanev tells Argus, proposing instead a target of 78pc, dependent on whether major emitters including China and India deliver on their pledges.
By Dafydd ab Iago
