Marred by geopolitical tensions, disrupted shipping routes, tariffs, shifting trade patterns, an accelerated decarbonisation agenda, and growing digitalisation, 2025 by far has been a turbulent year for the global shipping sector.
In the first half of the year, global shipping grappled with rapidly shifting operational conditions driven by trade policy shifts and tariffs, geopolitical tensions, ongoing disruption to critical shipping routes, intensified pressure on the shipping industry to decarbonise, and a restructuring in global container shipping alliances. The sector also faces strengthened environmental sustainability targets and regulations, advances in technology, fleet renewal needs, and continued uncertainty over the decarbonisation and energy transition.
The UN Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) Review of Maritime Transport 2025 report highlighted that new ship capacity continues to be delivered, especially in the container segment, with slowing trade growth in some markets. There are concerns about a potential fleet capacity surplus and asset underutilisation when distance-adjusted demand, which had absorbed surplus capacity over the past few years, eventually normalises, with ongoing uncertainty around navigation in the Red Sea worsening the issue.
Regional Conflicts
Ships have been rerouting – avoiding the Suez Canal, with tonnage transit levels by early May 2025 still around 70 percent below the 2023 average. The report notes that distance-adjusted demand, boosted by rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, will ease if and when the geopolitical tensions affecting the Red Sea fade away.
It highlighted that the Iran-Israel conflict in June 2025 exacerbated concerns about disruptions to maritime chokepoints. There were concerns about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is very critical for the global oil trade. According to UNCTAD data, over 30 million TEU of containerised port traffic takes place in the vicinity, with large transshipment activity in the port of Jebel Ali. In mid-June 2025, this crucial Strait saw an average of 114 ship transits a day, with 37 percent being tankers, 17 percent container ships, and 13 percent being bulk carriers.
Potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have the transit of 3,512 ships per month on average or over 42,400 ships per year – unsettling global oil and gas markets. But the conflict between Iran – Israel didn’t impact commercial shipping using this strait. However, shipping and insurance companies have been wary and on the lookout for sporadic disruptions that would result in increased shipping costs, delays, and premiums. Possible changes in oil and gas sourcing patterns, as per UNCTAD, could increase voyage distances, transit times, shipping rates, and ton miles, as well as tanker and LNG fleet capacity requirements. Moreover, ship capacity could also be trapped in the /Arabian Gulf – impacting the supply chain and the need for more ships.
US-Driven Tariffs Blank Sailings
And then there are the US’s notorious tariffs, which have held the world in its grip since the beginning of 2025. It was a wait-and-watch for shipping as it depended on further developments, the degree of exposure, and responses from the respective countries. Implications could affect demand for services, fleet capacity, and alter shipping networks, port call configurations, and fleet deployment plans.
Experts sounded concerns saying the tariffs could destabilise supply chain operations – about 60 percent of US companies faced logistics cost increases of 10 to 15 percent, and these costs have a ripple effect cascading through the supply chain – raising consumer prices.
Looking back to 2018, the tariff war between China and the US, Canada, India, Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam gave rise to rerouted trade flows. It reflects the reconfiguration of global value chains triggered by the new tariffs. This also gave rise to blank sailings, reported on the trans-Pacific and Asia-North America east coast trade lanes; shipments to the United States were either paused or cancelled. In April 2025, over 80 blank sailings on the trans-Pacific route were reported, surpassing the 51 in May 2020 during the pandemic. Early indications from carriers and forwarders suggested a 30 to 50 per cent reduction in Chinese bookings. Container port throughput in China plunged by 6.1 per cent by mid-April, while ports such as Los Angeles reported a 35 per cent dip in import volumes. The drop in trade volumes was reversed when a 90-day pause on steep tariffs was announced; inventory restocking accelerated to make use of this period ahead of agreement on the final tariffs. Importers started to front-load and build inventories, with blank sailing adjusted to match increased demand.
Port Fees
The US is bulldozing ahead with its anti-China policies, and the next one to hit the sector this month is the port fees. The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced measures to counter China’s perceived dominance in global maritime logistics and shipbuilding, notably port fees targeting certain ships calling at ports in the United States. These include Chinese-owned or -operated vessels as well as Chinese-built vessels, subject to some exceptions, and foreign-built vehicle carriers. It involves port fees, which apply to foreign ships calling at US ports, with a focus on Chinese-linked shipping operators and fleets, as well as vessels built in China. In particular, while applicable fees are set at $0 for the first 180 days, “in the first phase, beginning on October 14, 2025, the following will be assessed: Fees on vessel owners and operators of China based on net tonnage, increasing incrementally over the following years; Fees on operators of Chinese-built ships based on net tonnage or containers, increasing incrementally over the following years; and Fees on foreign-built car carrier vessels based on their capacity. The second phase, beginning on April 17, 2028, includes certain limited restrictions on the maritime transport of LNG through requirements to use domestic vessels. The action provides for suspension of the restriction for entities ordering and taking delivery of a US-built vessel.”
Not holding back, China announced countermeasures this week against any country or region that imposes or supports discrimination bans, restrictions or similar measures targeting Chinese operators, vessels, or crews. It includes, but is not limited to, charging special fees on their vessels when calling at Chinese ports, prohibiting or restricting these vessels’ port access in China, and barring or restricting their organisations, or individuals from accessing China-related maritime data, or operating in international shipping and related services to and from Chinese ports.
Vessels can adopt strategies to mitigate these measures.
Those with diversified fleets, limited reliance on Chinese-built tonnage, and operating as part of alliances are expected to have more flexibility when restructuring and configuring their shipping and port networks. Shipping operators will likely reorganise their fleets and relocate vessels associated with China away from trades originating or destined for the United States. UNCTAD highlighted that ships rerouted through alternative transshipment hubs could potentially generate benefits for some ports in Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean. But then, it could also cause shipping costs and voyage times to increase. Carriers may seek to make use of vessel-sharing arrangements to move cargo to carriers that are not affected by the measure. Additionally, they could consider chartering ships not affected by the United States policy measures and exploiting the various exemptions provided, like exclusion of smaller vessels and those arriving empty to load United States exports.
However, it is too early to assess the impact of these fast-evolving policy measures on the global fleet and shipping services.
