The Defense Intelligence Service (FE) assesses in a new report, just presented at a press conference, that Russia is already waging a hybrid war against NATO and the West. The hybrid war is taking place below the threshold of armed conflict and, according to FE, is intended to weaken cohesion in NATO and create uncertainty.
“It is our assessment that Russia is currently waging a hybrid war against Denmark and the West,” said the head of the Defense Intelligence Service (FE), Thomas Ahrenkiel, at the press conference, where Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen (V) predicted that we will experience “new attacks against Europe”.
“Massive rearmament is necessary,” he stated.
In the report, FE assesses that the threat from sabotage against the Defense is high, and that the threat from military provocations against NATO countries is also high. This includes, among other things, incidents in the Baltic Sea region, where Russia has carried out reckless sailing, simulated attacks, and jamming of GPS and communications.
The threat from destructive cyber attacks against Denmark is described as medium. In December 2024, for example, pro-Russian hackers succeeded in blowing up water pipes at a Danish waterworks.
The threat from influence operations is assessed as low, while there is no threat from regular military attacks against Denmark.
Increased tension in the Baltic Sea
According to FE, Russia’s aggressive behavior in airspace and at sea has increased since the spring of 2025. Russian aircraft and drones have repeatedly violated the airspace of NATO countries, particularly in Poland, Estonia, Finland, and Romania. At the same time, Russian fighter jets protect the country’s shadow fleet, which transports oil out of the Baltic Sea.
FE describes hybrid war as the use of political, economic, informational, and military means in combination – without crossing the threshold into actual war. Russia uses these methods to put pressure on the West, while the risk of escalation to armed conflict is assessed as low.
“Russia is not interested in starting an actual war with us. But when you move into the hybrid threat area, what happens is that you gradually blur the line between what is an attack and what is not an attack,” said Thomas Ahrenkiel and continued:
“Every time you carry out such an activity, you increase the risk of unforeseen events. In this way, you gradually blur the line between what is war and what is peace.”
FE also emphasizes in the report that the hybrid threat from Russia against NATO will likely increase in the coming years.
-emte
