Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskiy visited the Black Sea port of Chornomorsk, a short distance south of Odesa, on Friday July 29th – a rare departure for him these days from Kyiv – to show that Ukraine was ready to start exporting grain. He said that Kyiv was awaiting the signal for the first shipment.
It was reported on Saturday that 17 ships had been loaded in Odesa and Chornomorsk, 16 of them with grain and with 600,000 tons of cargo. Ten of these were “ready to leave”.
“We are ready to export Ukrainian grain. We are waiting for signals from our partners about the start of transportation,” Zelenskiy said on Telegram after visiting Chornomorsk.
Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov told reporters in Odesa that 17 vessels trapped by the Russian blockade were already loaded with grain, and another was now being loaded. He said that Chornomorsk and Odesa were ready to start shipping grain and that he hoped that Pivdennyi (Yuzhne) would be ready by the end of the week.
“We hope that today we will receive confirmation from the UN regarding the proposed corridor in which the ships will sail through the Black Sea towards the Bosphorus, and after this we (will be) ready to begin. I hope that the first ships will leave our ports before the end of this week,” he said.
Kubrakov did not say what volumes of grain would be shipped and gave no further details of the planned cargoes.
Ahmet Yucel Alibeyler, captain of the Polarnet (IMO 9758961), said the loading of 12,000 tonnes of bulk grain had started and the plan was to finish loading by noon on Sunday July 31st.
“After that, we will start our passage through the identified grain corridor towards Turkey, along with the other ships, as the convoy leading vessel,” he said.
Meanwhile, 41,550 dwt bulk carrier Rojen (IMO 9754927) was also reported as readying to depart Chornomorsk. Rojen altered its AIS destination last week, signalling Teesport in the UK as its destination (ETA August 14th). Additionally, the vessel’s draft has changed since Wednesday, suggesting it is being loaded. It has also changed berths in the port.
The ship is owned by Navibulgar and insured with West of England Club.
Shipbroker Braemar said that enquiries had mainly for handies (35,000 to 48,000 dwt) given their size due to the shallower draft requirements in some ports in Africa.
“Due to the time pressure of the situation and risk of heading to Ukraine amid plenty of safety concerns, these Handies are unsurprisingly commanding a considerable premium to any period rates currently being discussed in the Atlantic elsewhere,” Braemar noted in a dry bulk markets update.
With an estimated 20m tonnes needing to be shipped over the coming four months (most assessments put the amount of grain waiting to be shifted at 10 % to 20% higher than this), Braemar estimated that 371 supramax loadings or 715 handymax loadings would be needed.
The exporting process will be slow. Notwithstanding the need to negotiate waters that are mined, authorities at the new Joint Control Centre in Turkey will undertake a full inspection of each vessel headed to pick up grain at a Turkish port to search for weapons, before the ship can head into the Black Sea towards Ukrainian ports. Braemar estimated that this would add at least three days to each voyage. Braemar warned that “the rush to position
a large amount of vessels quickly, implies we expect to see queues both in Turkey and outside Ukrainian waters waiting for escort into ports if enough vessels make themselves available. In this scenario, the estimate of three days is likely on the low-side”.
Braemar analysts joined those at security consultancy Dryad Global in holding a degree of scepticism at the capacity available for grain exports. The first week of the operation would be “highly significant” for the initiative, said Dryad Global, as these types of agreements were at their most vulnerable in their early days.
“Whilst there are strong reasons for Russia to act strictly within the bounds of their agreement with Turkiye and prevent any attacks on grain terminals and ships, this conflict has repeatedly demonstrated the importance of never assuming Russia will behave within the bounds of reason,” Dryad Global warned.
2016-built, Turkey-flagged, 8,559 gt Polarnet is owned by Polarnet Iletism Ve Gemi of Istanbul. It is manager by Polarcom Denizcilik Anonim Sti of Istanbul, Turkey. It is entered with Thomas Miller Specialty on behalf of Polarcom Denizcilik Anonim. As of the morning of July 31st it was still moored in Chornomorsk.
2019-built, Malta-flagged, 27,781 gt Rojen is owned by Rojen Maritime Ltd care of Navigation Maritime Vulgare JSC of Varna, Bulgaria. It is entered with West of England (Eastern Claims team) on behalf of Rojen Maritime Ltd. As of the morning of July 31st it was still moored at Chornomorsk.
