EMBARGOED UNTIL 00:01 / 06:01 CEST on MONDAY, 22 SEPTEMBER
Edinburgh, 22 September (Argus) — Global fossil fuel production through to 2030 will be more than double the volume compatible with the Paris agreement’s temperature limits, far exceeding levels implied by countries’ climate plans and pledges, according to a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).
The so-called production gap — the difference between governments’ planned fossil fuel output and levels consistent with the Paris agreement’s temperature goals — is based on plans from 20 major producing countries, including the US, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, the UAE, Australia, the UK, Norway, Russia and India.
Only six of the 20 countries are developing domestic production scenarios aligned with national and global net zero targets, up from four in 2023. These include Canada, China, Germany, Indonesia, Colombia and Brazil, which is working on new oil and gas production scenarios aligned with its 2050 net zero goal.
But most countries “continue to plan fossil fuel production at levels inconsistent with their net zero climate ambitions,” the report said. It added that some appear to be reverting to “an outdated fossil-fuel-dependent playbook”, citing the US as an example.
Projected fossil fuel output in 2030 exceeds levels aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C by more than 120pc, up from 110pc in 2023, the report said. The production gap relative to a 2°C pathway is 77pc, compared with 69pc in 2023. The Paris agreement aims to curb the global rise in temperature to “well below” 2°C above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C.
Planned oil production is 31pc above levels consistent with a 1.5°C pathway in 2030, and 260pc above by 2050. Under a 2°C pathway, the overshoot narrows to 16pc in 2030 and 100pc in 2050. These planned production increases “are at odds with the IEA’s demand projection,” the report said, referring to a June forecast that global oil demand will rise by 2.5mn b/d between 2024 and 2030, plateauing at around 105.5mn b/d by the end of the decade.
Coal and gas production plans show even wider gaps. By 2030, coal output would exceed 1.5°C-aligned levels by 500pc, and gas by 92pc. Compared with a 2°C pathway, coal and gas would be 330pc and 33pc higher, respectively. By 2050, coal output would overshoot the 1.5°C limit by 2,500pc, and gas by 230pc, according to the report.
The report noted that while China plans to phase down coal production through to 2050, its near-term output plans have increased. It also warned that LNG expansion by governments seeking energy security will likely “lock in future consumption”.
Fossil fuel output continues to grow despite governments agreeing to a call to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems to achieve net zero by 2050. Most producing countries still “encourage investment in fossil fuel infrastructure at odds with governments’ own climate commitments”, the report said. “Even with rapid and concerted efforts starting today, fossil fuel production in 2030 will likely exceed the levels in the 1.5°C-compatible scenarios presented in this report,” it said.
By Caroline Varin
