Antalya, 13 August (Argus) — The IEA has trimmed its global oil demand growth forecasts for the third month in a row, citing lacklustre demand in major economies and depressed consumer confidence.
The Paris-based agency cut its 2025 demand growth projection by 20,000 b/d to 680,000 b/d, with total consumption seen at 103.74mn b/d, according to its latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR). The IEA’s growth estimate for this year is now around 350,000 b/d below its projection at the start of the year.
The IEA puts most of the deteriorating demand picture down to weaker-than-expected consumption in China, Brazil and India, all of which it revised down from the previous month’s OMR. The agency said slowing demand in China and Brazil meant India and Nigeria are likely to be the leading sources of growth this year.
In contrast, OECD demand is proving resilient. The IEA said robust summer travel had propelled jet fuel demand to records in the US and Europe. It said easing monetary policy, lower oil prices and a strong euro against the US dollar was supporting oil demand in Europe.
The IEA cut its demand growth estimate for 2026 by 20,000 b/d to 700,000 b/d, with total consumption seen at 104.44mn b/d.
The agency’s demand projections for 2025 and 2026 remain well below Opec’s forecasts.
On the supply side, the IEA upgraded its growth forecast for 2025 by 370,000 b/d to 2.5mn b/d, and for 2026 by 620,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. This would put full year supply at 105.5mn b/d and 107.4mn b/d in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
The projected supply increases were driven by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ production cuts.
But the IEA noted considerable uncertainty regarding global oil supply, with the US tightening sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil sales.
“While oil market balances look ever more bloated as forecast supply far eclipses demand towards year-end and in 2026, additional sanctions on Russia and Iran may curb supplies from the world’s third and fifth largest producers,” the IEA said.
The IEA said global stocks rose for a fifth consecutive month in June, by 21.1mn bl in June, with preliminary data showing inventories holding steady in July.
By Aydin Calik
