India’s intake of Russian crude is set to move from a late-year surge to a sharp December drop as new U.S. and EU sanctions force refiners to reassess discounted supplies, according to Signal Ocean.
The firm, part of Greece-based The Signal Group, says arrivals peaked in November as buyers front-loaded cargoes before a 21 November U.S. deadline on Rosneft and Lukoil, with the 21-day moving average already about 30% below end-October and “trending lower.”
Reuters customs and tracking data show India receiving about 1.87 million bpd of Russian crude in November, up from 1.65 million bpd in October, but flows may plunge to 600,000–650,000 bpd in December — a three-year low — as refiners avoid sanction breaches and financing risks.
The fall follows U.S. measures blacklisting Rosneft, Lukoil and affiliates, an EU rule banning from January 2026 fuels made in refineries that processed Russian crude in the previous 60 days, and U.S. tariff moves including an extra 25% duty on Indian purchases of Russian oil.
Reliance Industries has halted Russian crude imports into its export-oriented SEZ refinery from 20 November, sending later-arriving cargoes to its Domestic Tariff Area unit and shifting the SEZ facility fully to non-Russian crude from December.
Signal’s data indicate Reliance front-loaded Russian cargoes before the deadline, with the last SEZ-bound shipment loaded on 12 November.
Among state refiners, Indian Oil Corporation resumed Russian purchases only from non-sanctioned suppliers, booking five ESPO cargoes totalling around 3.5 million barrels for December, while MRPL, HPCL and HPCL-Mittal Energy have reduced or stopped Russian inflows; Nayara Energy, part-owned by Rosneft, continues running mainly Russian crude under tighter scrutiny.
The shift reflects a broader realignment of India’s crude slate. Russian barrels rose to about one-third of India’s imports by 2024–25, with around 60% sourced from Rosneft and Lukoil, while U.S. crude reached 10.7% of inflows in October 2025, alongside supplies from the Middle East, Latin America and West Africa.
