Despite a weak start in 2025, signs of recovery are now emerging in Indonesia’s thermal coal exports. The country’s thermal coal exports fell to their lowest point of the year in June, at approximately 35 million tons, but rebounded strongly to nearly 48 million tons by August, surpassing the level from the same period last year. In the first half of the year, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports totaled 236.4 million tons, lower than the 263 million tons in the same period of 2024. However, the strong performance in August suggests that some of the previous decline may be compensated for in the second half of the year.
Policy adjustments are expected to further drive this shift. In late August, Indonesia abolished the regulation requiring coal and mineral sales to use the government’s benchmark price as a floor, granting exporters greater flexibility to closely follow market indices. Taxes and royalties remain linked to the benchmark price, and the benchmark price for September will help Indonesian coal maintain its competitive edge against similar products from Australia and Russia.
On the trade policy front, the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the European Union and Indonesia was signed in Bali on September 23, marking a key step in enhancing Indonesia’s trade profile. Meanwhile, shipping data indicates that its trade footprint is no longer limited to China and India, with the Philippines also becoming a stable export market. In August, Panamax and Supramax vessels loaded cargo from ports such as Balikpapan, Taboneo, Banjarmasin, and Muara and delivered it to ports including Sual, Limay, Bagabag, Mariveles, and Davao. This highlights the role of the Philippines as a stable export destination, even as its energy mix gradually shifts towards liquefied natural gas.
