As of November 6, 2025, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) closed at 2063 points, up 72 points from October 24, an increase of 3.62%. Among them, the Capesize Index (BCI) rose by 371 points, an increase of 12.92%, while the Panamax Index (BPI) fell by 107 points, a decrease of 5.56%.
In the iron ore market, overseas shipments decreased by 1.745 million tons month-on-month to 32.138 million tons. Overseas iron ore shipments saw a slight decline, but domestic port iron ore arrivals rebounded significantly. On the demand side, daily hot metal output decreased by 35,400 tons month-on-month to 2.3636 million tons. Hot metal production continues to decline, steel mill profit rates continue to fall, hitting a new low for the year. Some blast furnaces have started maintenance due to poor profitability, while terminal demand remains stable. Overall, near-term port arrivals of iron ore have increased sharply, hot metal production continues its downward trend, steel mill profit rates have fallen again, iron ore demand continues to weaken, port inventory pressure continues to accumulate, and the supply-demand margin is turning weaker. After macroeconomic factors are realized, iron ore prices may see a phased decline.
In the coal market, the domestic coal market is experiencing frenzied price increases. The price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at northern ports has broken through 760 /ton. Imported coal holds a significant price advantage; the landed price for a full shipload of 3800 kcal Indonesian coal is only 445 /ton, which is over 60 yuan cheaper than domestic coal of the same calorific value. The FOB price for 5500 kcal Australian coal has surged to 74 USD. After adding sea freight and value-added tax, the landed price is about 710.5 /ton, still nearly 50 yuan cheaper than domestic coal at northern ports. The volume of imported coal continues to rise, with imports reaching 46 million tons in September, setting a new record.
In the grain market, as October begins, corn-producing regions across the country are successively entering the concentrated harvest period. Market supply is expected to increase further, but this year’s import volume has dropped significantly. On October 25, Chinese importers collectively suspended 1.8 million tons of new soybean orders from Brazil. Three days later, Brazil issued a public announcement, initiating an anti-dumping investigation into non-woven fabrics originating from China.
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