There is little likelihood of the Black Sea corridor deal allowing the export of Ukrainian grain from three designated ports through the Black Sea to Istanbul for inspection and then beyond was very unlikely to be renewed when it reaches its scheduled end later this month.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a briefing on Monday July 3rd that there were “not too many hopes” that it would be extended, because no progress has been made in implementing accompanying agreements relating to exports of non-sanctioned Russian goods such as grain or fertilizer. This was despite relatively last-minute attempts by the EU to make some concessions (which were criticized by Ukraine as giving into blackmail) including the setting up of a Russian grain financial operation that would be allowed to trade through SWIFT, the international transaction network. The lack of access to Swift was one of Russia’s several complaints about the implementation of the grain corridor deal that was agreed last July.
The deal, under which Russia has guaranteed the safety of grain ships heading to and from Ukrainian ports through waters it controls, is set to expire on July 18th.
While analysts expect Ukraine to rely to a far greater extent on exports via the River Danube and via land to EU states, Ukraine itself has floated an idea (for which details are still sketchy), of operating a Black Sea route without Russian cooperation. That would entail Ukraine setting up a fund that would guarantee compensation for shipowners that agreed to carry grain from Ukraine south to Istanbul, should the vessel suffer damage or cargo be lost.
