At the end of Week 45, global bunker indices MABUX showed mixed movements with no clear overall trend. The 380 HSFO index declined by USD 5.51 — from USD /MT to USD /MT — once again falling below the USD 450 mark. The VLSFO index also edged down by USD 1.84, from USD /MT to USD /MT. In contrast, the MGO index rose by USD 5.81, increasing from USD /MT to USD /MT, gradually nearing the USD 800 threshold. As of the time of writing, there was no consistent direction in fuel price movements across the global bunker market.
MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) — the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO — showed a moderate increase of USD 3.67, rising from USD 65.94 last week to USD 69.61. The indicator is now approaching the USD 70.00 level but remains steadily below the psychological USD 100.00 SS breakeven mark. The weekly average value of the index rose slightly by USD 0.35. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread also widened by USD 3.00, from USD 24.00 to USD 27.00, with the port’s weekly average increasing by USD 2.83. In Singapore, the 380 /VLSFO price differential grew more significantly — by USD 13.00, from USD 62.00 to USD 75.00 — while the weekly average gained USD 9.17. Overall, the SS Spread demonstrated moderate growth this week, which may signal the start of a short-term upward trend. However, its sustainable position well below the USD 100.00 SS breakeven mark continues to reflect the strong profitability of VLSFO versus HSFO + Scrubber. We expect the upward momentum in the SS Spread to persist next week. Detailed figures are available in the “Differentials” section of .
Europe’s natural /LNG market remains tightly balanced, with considerable upside risk should any supply disruption occur (given lower pipeline flows and thin storage) and uncertainty on demand. LNG plays a pivotal role as a flexible source, but capacity and delivery constraints persist. While the structural direction (diversification, decarbonisation, lower reliance on Russian gas) is clear, the near‐term winter period remains vulnerable. Price risk remains elevated and operational flexibility (storage, LNG imports, network resilience) will determine market outcomes.
As of November 4, European regional gas storage facilities were 83.02% full, marking a 0.17% increase from the previous week. The rate of storage capacity filling has slowed significantly. Current levels stand 11.69% higher than at the beginning of the year (71.33%). At the end of Week 45, the European TTF gas benchmark recorded moderate growth, rising by €/MWh — from €/MWh to €/MWh.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) posted a moderate decline this week, down by USD 13.00 to USD /MT, compared to USD /MT last week. The correction reflects a mild easing in global LNG quotations, amid stable demand and sufficient regional supply.
The price differential between LNG and conventional bunker fuel remained firmly in favor of LNG, widening to USD 48 versus USD 40 the week before. This was supported by the relatively steady price of MGO LS, which was quoted at USD /MT at the port of Sines on the same day. The sustained price advantage continues to support LNG’s competitiveness as an alternative marine fuel. More detailed data and trend analysis are available in the LNG Bunkering section on .
At the end of Week 45, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — representing the ratio between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Benchmark (DBP) — reflected the following bunker fuel pricing trends across the world’s major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: Three ports — Rotterdam, Singapore, and Fujairah — remained undervalued. The average weekly MDI increased by 4 points in Rotterdam, 5 points in Singapore, and 19 points in Fujairah. Houston continued to be the only overvalued port in this segment, with its MDI decreasing by 4 points.
• VLSFO segment: Houston shifted into the undervalued zone, resulting in all four ports being undervalued. The average weekly MDI undervaluation widened by 2 points in Rotterdam and 12 points in Houston, but narrowed by 3 points in Singapore and 2 points in Fujairah. Houston’s MDI remained close to the 100% correlation level between MBP and DBP.
• MGO LS segment: Singapore remained the only overvalued port, with its MDI rising by 4 points and staying near the 100% correlation threshold. The other three ports were undervalued: MDI values fell by 5 points in Rotterdam but increased by 33 points in Fujairah and 11 points in Houston.
Overall, by the end of the week, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports continued to shift further toward undervaluation, with Houston joining this category in the VLSFO segment. We expect the trend toward undervaluation in MDI values to persist in the global bunker market next week.
Detailed data on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark can be found in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section on .
The Nordic Council has adopted a member resolution calling on Nordic governments to push for an International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulation that would mandate vessels operating in the Arctic to reduce black carbon (BC) emissions by using designated polar fuels, such as maritime distillates DMA and DMZ. Comprising 87 parliamentarians from the Åland Islands, Denmark, Faroe Islands, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden, the Nordic Council emphasized that alternative fuels demonstrating equivalent black carbon reduction potential to marine distillates should also qualify under the “polar fuels” definition. The Council set a deadline of 5 December 2025 for the submission of concrete proposals, allowing for consideration during the IMO’s thirteenth Sub-Committee on Pollution Prevention and Response (PPR13) session in February 2026.
The initiative seeks to accelerate tangible measures under the IMO framework to mitigate the climate impact of Arctic shipping. According to the resolution, black carbon emissions from ships burning oil-based fuels have more than doubled over the past decade. From a market perspective, such a regulatory shift could increase demand for low-sulphur distillates in Arctic operations, while also stimulating investment in alternative fuel technologies capable of meeting polar emission standards. If adopted by the IMO, the measure would mark a significant tightening of Arctic fuel requirements and could influence global marine fuel specifications in sensitive environmental zones.
The global bunker market appears to be in the process of forming a more sustainable trend. However, market fundamentals and regional dynamics remain uneven. We anticipate that next week’s bunker index movements will likely continue to exhibit mixed fluctuations without a definitive directional pattern, reflecting a period of market adjustment and cautious sentiment among participants.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
