The Bunker Outlook was contributed by Marine Bunker Exchange (MABUX)
Following the 41st week, the global bunker indices of MABUX posted a moderate downward adjustment. The 380 HSFO index declined by USD 3.38, moving from USD /MT to USD /MT, once again nearing the USD 450 threshold. The VLSFO index fell by USD 2.47, from USD /MT to USD /MT, while the MGO index registered the sharpest decline of USD 8.03, sliding from USD /MT to USD /MT. At the time of writing, early signals of an upward correction were visible across the global bunker market.
The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—showed a slight increase of $0.91, rising from $70.95 last week to $71.86, while remaining firmly below the psychological mark of $100.00 (SS Breakeven). In contrast, the weekly average value of the index decreased by $1.76. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread continued its downward movement, falling by $11.00 to $35.00 from $46.00 a week earlier, breaking the $40.00 threshold for the first time since May 8, 2025. The weekly average value at the port also declined by $5.67. In Singapore, the 380 /VLSFO price difference widened by $3.00, from $70.00 last week to $73.00, with the weekly average value also rising by $3.00. Overall, the SS Spread indices continue to lack a clear trend. However, the values remain well below the $100.00 mark, sustaining the higher profitability of conventional VLSFO compared to the HSFO plus scrubber combination. Significant shifts in SS Spread trends are considered unlikely in the near term. Detailed figures are available in the “Differentials” section of .
Europe is relying on LNG imports to offset reduced pipeline flows and rebuild storage, but inventories remain below last year’s levels. With TTF prices still trading above 2024 benchmarks on a year-over-year basis, the market remains exposed to supply shocks and weather volatility—even as overall EU demand holds steady.
As of October 7, European regional gas storage facilities were 82.88% full, up 0.29% from the previous week. Storage levels stand 11.55% higher compared with the beginning of the year (71.33%), although the pace of injections has slowed noticeably. By the end of the 41st week, the European TTF gas benchmark resumed its upward trajectory, gaining 1.835 /MWh to reach 33.346 /MWh from 31.411 /MWh a week earlier.
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel at the port of Sines (Portugal) declined by USD 10.00 this week, standing at USD /MT, compared with USD /MT the previous week. At the same time, the price differential between LNG and conventional fuel once again moved in favor of conventional fuel: USD 32/MT, down from USD 11/MT in favor of LNG a week earlier. MGO LS was quoted at USD /MT at the port of Sines on the same day.
Further details are available in the “LNG Bunkering” section on .
At the end of the 41st week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP)—reflected the following price dynamics across the world’s largest hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
• 380 HSFO segment: Fujairah and Houston moved into the overvalued zone, with their average weekly MDI values rising by 20 and 17 points, respectively. Rotterdam and Singapore remained undervalued, although their discounts narrowed by 11 and 10 points. Notably, Fujairah’s MDI approached the 100% correlation mark between MBP and DBP.
• VLSFO segment: Houston was the only port in overvaluation, with its average MDI adding another 4 points and remaining close to full correlation. The other hubs maintained their positions in the undervalued zone. Weekly average MDI levels fell by 7 points in Rotterdam, 18 points in Singapore, and 17 points in Fujairah.
• MGO LS segment: Singapore’s MDI reached full 100% correlation between MBP and DBP, while the remaining ports stayed undervalued. Weekly MDI values decreased by 18 points in Rotterdam, 20 points in Fujairah, and 10 points in Houston, with the latter also nearing full correlation.
Last week, the balance between overvalued and undervalued ports shifted toward overvaluation. The MDI reflected overpricing at two ports—Fujairah and Houston—in the 380 HSFO segment, while Singapore reached full 100% correlation in the MGO LS segment. We believe the gradual shift in the SS Spread’s focus toward overpricing is likely to persist into next week.
More detailed information on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark is available in the Digital Bunker Prices section on .
According to the latest data from classification society DNV, the third quarter of 2025 marked a slowdown in orders for vessels capable of operating on alternative fuels, following record growth in the first half of the year. No new orders were recorded in August, and activity remained subdued in September, with only 14 orders placed—12 LNG carriers and two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers. From January to September, a total of 192 alternative-fueled vessels were ordered, representing a 48% decline compared with the same period in 2024. This contraction mirrors both the broader weakening of the newbuilding market and rising contract values. Market sentiment has also been tempered by regulatory uncertainty, particularly regarding the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Framework for Carbon Neutrality and the treatment of different fuels under life-cycle assessments. As a result, many shipowners have adopted a cautious, wait-and-see approach toward new commitments. In terms of fuel choice, LNG continues to dominate with 121 vessels ordered so far this year. Methanol follows with 43 units, while LPG accounts for 19. Five ammonia-fueled and four hydrogen-fueled vessels were also contracted.
By segment, container ships remain the driving force, representing 63% of all alternative-fuel vessel orders in 2025.
We believe that, despite the slight decline in indices at the end of the week, bunker prices may in the short term enter a phase of moderate upward correction.
By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
