Subdued sentiment prevailed at the Sept. 28-30 International Rebar Producers and Exporters Association conference in Munich, Germany, with participants across the supply chain sharing a weak outlook for the Turkish scrap market amid sluggish demand and rising freight costs.
Many participants said the Turkish market remained in “wait-and-see” mode, with one saying it was “still waiting for direction” amid limited deal activity during the event.
Multiple sources shared a Baltic-origin deal with heavy melting scrap 1/2 80:20 at $/metric ton CFR and shred at $/mt CFR, booked by a Marmara mill. However, further details could not be obtained by market close Sept. 30.
Increasing freight rates dominated discussions of recently higher scrap prices, with many saying the elevated freight rates, rather than changed fundamentals, have driven the boost.
“The current freight situation has been absolutely devastating for business,” a sell-side source said, adding that current scrap price levels may be unsustainable with rapidly increasing freight costs burdening sellers.
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed the Rotterdam-Aliaga dry bulk Supramax freight rate at $/mt Sept. 30, up from $21/mt Aug. 29.
Platts assessed Turkish imports of premium HMS 1/2 (80:20) at $/mt CFR on Sept. 30, up from $/mt CFR Sept. 23.
Overall demand for scrap has remained weak, with participants attributing this to muted downstream appetite for finished steel products, particularly in Europe and China.
“[The] European construction sector is recovering in 2025 … but only in infrastructure,” Alexander Gordienko, export director of Celsa Group, said during a presentation, adding that a stagnant property sector in Europe and the US has also muted demand for finished steel products.
“[In China,] the property sector keeps deteriorating despite various government programs … It seems there is no hope of recovery at all,” Gordienko added.
Other market participants were positive about increasing demand for finished and semi-finished products in India due to the upcoming festive season, which usually sees a surge in white goods and auto sales.
Regarding the direction of scrap prices, participants remained divided. Some said demand could pick up, with Turkish mills reportedly in the market for shipments for November delivery.
However, Turkish mills were still heard struggling with high energy costs and prolonged weakness in export and domestic markets.
Some participants predicted scrap prices would remain under pressure amid a narrowing spread between Turkish scrap imports and rebar exports.
Platts assessed Turkish exported rebar at $/mt FOB on Sept. 30, stable day over day.
The spread between Turkish deepsea imported scrap and Turkish export rebar was $/mt on Sept. 30, also unchanged from the previous day.
Turkish rebar exporters struggle to find selling destinations
Rebar producers in Turkey have continued to struggle amid rising scrap prices and the government’s introduction of a minimum of 25% domestic content in steel production.
Weak demand in export and domestic markets has also been tightening margin costs on top. Turkey-based exporters have been scrambling to find export destinations amid strong competition from other regions, particularly from the Middle East and North Africa.
Additionally, increased import quotas and duties in Turkey’s typical selling destinations have made it challenging for exporters to sell, with markets such as Canada introducing steel and aluminum import quotas in July, while the US doubled its import duty to 50% for these sectors in June.
“Our buyers were able to take the additional 25% cost, but 50% is just too much,” a Turkey-based trader told Platts on the sidelines of the event. “When [US President Donald] Trump signed the order, I stopped trading with the US immediately.”
The EU, a typical export destination, has also been difficult to sell to amid import quotas and competition from Asia and the UK. Market participants said European mills have also struggled to sell, leading them to focus on the domestic market with limited success amid low demand from the construction industry.
CBAM uncertainty adds to difficult market conditions
Ongoing confusion surrounding the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, due to come into effect at the beginning of 2026, has also recently muted activity, many participants said, as they attempt to understand how it will impact the market.
“Everyone is worried about CBAM; people are hesitant until things are more clear,” a Europe-based recycler source said.
“CBAM was thought to be the savior, but there is still a lot of confusion,” a second Europe-based recycler source said.
“It’s quite shocking that here we are in September 2025 and none of us know how things will play out in January 2026,” a market participant said.
Source: Platts
