Since the beginning of 2025, dry bulk carrier orders have been sluggish, with shipowners showing weak willingness to place new orders, and market prices have fallen to their lowest point in nearly a decade. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal pointed out that over the past few weeks, Greek shipowners have been active in the newbuilding market for dry bulk carriers, showing a significant recovery trend. Several well-known shipowners have been frequently placing orders at shipyards. Eastmed, OceanBulk, Efnav, and Seanergy have committed to ordering Kamsarmax vessels, while Capital Shipping and Seanergy have also entered the Capesize market. At the same time, Atlantic Bulk Carriers and JME have also targeted Ultramax vessels. These orders have dominated the recent newbuilding market, highlighting the renewed ordering interest among Greek buyers. However, this short-term activity stands in stark contrast to the overall situation in 2025. As the year-end approaches, the full-year trend line has become clear.
Dry bulk carrier contracting this year has been exceptionally weak, with only 288 vessels ordered so far, marking the lowest annual figure since 2016 and far below recent levels—549 in 2022, 709 in 2023, and 771 in 2024. Although orders have generally slowed across nations, the sharp decline in Greek orders is a key factor behind this year’s weak data. In 2025, Greek shipowners ordered only 26 bulk carriers, accounting for about 9% of the total, with 18 of these concentrated in October and November. The choice of shipyards has also shown a trend of concentration: apart from Japan securing three orders, Greek buyers have completely turned to China, with Hengli Heavy Industries securing nearly 70% of the business. In terms of vessel types, Greek orders include 16 Kamsarmax, 7 Ultramax, and 3 Capesize vessels, far fewer than the 57 in 2024 and 141 in 2023.
Orders from Chinese shipowners have also shrunk significantly this year, with a total of 112 dry bulk carriers ordered in 2025, a notable drop from 274 in 2024 and 171 in 2023. These orders were distributed across 21 different shipyards, covering 31 Newcastlemax, 26 Post-Panamax, 20 Kamsarmax, 20 Supramax, and 15 Handysize vessels. Japan’s newbuilding activity has also contracted, securing only 32 orders so far in 2025, accounting for about 11% of the total dry bulk carrier volume. This contrasts sharply with 82 in 2024 and 147 in 2023, highlighting the continued decline in Japan’s participation as shipowners adopt more cautious forward-looking strategies.
The exceptionally low contracting volume this year is attributed to a confluence of multiple factors: the unresolved IMO regulatory framework, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and limited strategic choices. With the postponement of the IMO’s net-zero emissions framework negotiation timeline, many shipowners anticipate that the final framework will accommodate a broader range of fuel and engine strategies, including transitional fuels and designs favorable for retrofitting.
This expectation of a more moderate and adaptable compliance environment may incentivize some shipowners to advance their newbuilding plans. Regarding tariffs, the one-year suspension of port fees has alleviated a major risk source for shipowners. The immediate punitive incentive to avoid Chinese shipyards has weakened, reducing some of the wait-and-see sentiment. However, the uncertainty that persisted throughout the year has left its mark, while high newbuilding prices and extended delivery times remain major obstacles, especially with available berths pushed back to 2027 and beyond.
Against this backdrop, market sentiment will adjust as the situation stabilizes. Once these uncertainties and cost conditions are clarified, a recovery in new orders is expected. This will not only be a reaction to the market but also a strategic positioning to prepare for the next wave of the shipping cycle.
